Models
MAHANAGAR GAS LTD.MGLGas
₹1,593per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,593implied FY26 P/E 22.0× · EV/EBITDA 10.8×
Against CMP ₹1,085.60+46.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies4.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3186%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,192₹2,394
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹900₹1,378
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,245 |
| PV of terminal value | 13,430 |
| Enterprise value | 15,676 |
| less net debt | 57 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 15,733 |
| ÷ 9.88 crore shares | ₹1,593 |
86% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,649 | 1,784 | 1,947 | 2,146 | 2,394 |
| 10.50% | 1,508 | 1,621 | 1,754 | 1,913 | 2,108 |
| 11.00% | 1,387 | 1,482 | 1,593 | 1,723 | 1,880 |
| 11.50% | 1,283 | 1,364 | 1,457 | 1,565 | 1,694 |
| 12.00% | 1,192 | 1,262 | 1,341 | 1,432 | 1,539 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,085.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,218 · 1,579 · 2,033 |
| Draws below the CMP | 3% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.51 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,914 | 7,979 | 9,065 | 10,289 | 11,678 | 13,255 | 15,044 | 17,075 |
| growth % | — | 15.4 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,844 | 1,569 | 1,451 | 1,646 | 1,868 | 2,121 | 2,407 | 2,732 |
| margin % | 26.7 | 19.7 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| less depreciation | (284) | (352) | (410) | (463) | (526) | (596) | (677) | (768) |
| EBIT | 1,560 | 1,217 | 1,041 | 1,183 | 1,343 | 1,524 | 1,730 | 1,964 |
| less tax on EBIT | (269) | (305) | (346) | (393) | (446) | (507) | ||
| NOPAT | 772 | 878 | 996 | 1,131 | 1,284 | 1,457 | ||
| add depreciation | 284 | 352 | 410 | 463 | 526 | 596 | 677 | 768 |
| less capex | (783) | (1,184) | (1,076) | (1,224) | (1,200) | (1,147) | (1,057) | (922) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 678 | 631 | — | 110 | 315 | 573 | 895 | 1,293 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 105 | 269 | 441 | 621 | 809 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 35.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,041 | 1,183 | 1,343 | 1,524 | 1,730 | 1,964 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 1,183 | 1,343 | 1,524 | 1,730 | 1,964 | |
| Profit after tax | 841 | 878 | 996 | 1,131 | 1,284 | 1,457 |
| Dividends | (296) | (309) | (351) | (398) | (452) | (513) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 57 | (141) | (177) | (2) | 441 | 1,221 |
| Working capital | 42 | 48 | 55 | 63 | 72 | 82 |
| Net block and other assets | 8,882 | 9,643 | 10,317 | 10,868 | 11,247 | 11,401 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 6,442 | 7,011 | 7,656 | 8,389 | 9,221 | 10,165 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,335 | 1,515 | 1,720 | 1,952 | 2,215 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,224) | (1,200) | (1,147) | (1,057) | (922) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (309) | (351) | (398) | (452) | (513) | |
| Net change in cash | (199) | (36) | 175 | 443 | 780 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 110 | 315 | 573 | 895 | 1,293 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13.5% | 16% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,593 | 46.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.