Models
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTDM&MAutomobiles
₹5,351per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹5,351implied FY26 P/E 32.4× · EV/EBITDA 21.0×
Against CMP ₹3,107.00+72.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies13.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹3,823₹8,402
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,896₹3,840
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,47,201 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,21,476 |
| Enterprise value | 7,68,677 |
| less net debt | (1,25,322) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,43,355 |
| ÷ 120.24 crore shares | ₹5,351 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 5,569 | 6,084 | 6,703 | 7,458 | 8,402 |
| 10.50% | 5,031 | 5,459 | 5,965 | 6,572 | 7,313 |
| 11.00% | 4,570 | 4,930 | 5,351 | 5,847 | 6,443 |
| 11.50% | 4,172 | 4,478 | 4,832 | 5,245 | 5,733 |
| 12.00% | 3,823 | 4,087 | 4,388 | 4,736 | 5,141 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,107.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 3,689 · 5,313 · 7,418 |
| Draws below the CMP | 3% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.42 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,21,269 | 1,39,078 | 1,59,211 | 1,98,639 | 2,48,298 | 3,10,373 | 3,87,966 | 4,84,957 | 6,06,197 |
| growth % | 34.5 | 14.7 | 14.5 | 24.8 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| EBITDA | 21,535 | 24,892 | 30,518 | 36,687 | 45,935 | 57,419 | 71,774 | 89,717 | 1,12,146 |
| margin % | 17.8 | 17.9 | 19.2 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| less depreciation | (4,357) | (4,724) | (6,074) | (7,322) | (9,187) | (11,484) | (14,355) | (17,943) | (22,429) |
| EBIT | 17,178 | 20,168 | 24,445 | 29,365 | 36,748 | 45,935 | 57,419 | 71,774 | 89,717 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8,310) | (10,400) | (13,000) | (16,250) | (20,312) | (25,390) | |||
| NOPAT | 21,055 | 26,348 | 32,936 | 41,169 | 51,462 | 64,327 | |||
| add depreciation | 4,357 | 4,724 | 6,074 | 7,322 | 9,187 | 11,484 | 14,355 | 17,943 | 22,429 |
| less capex | (6,305) | (9,946) | (10,392) | (9,605) | (11,918) | (14,619) | (17,924) | (21,969) | (26,915) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (13,379) | (15,576) | (7,216) | — | 23,617 | 29,801 | 37,600 | 47,437 | 59,841 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 22,416 | 25,483 | 28,966 | 32,922 | 37,415 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,29,615, dividends at 19.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 29,365 | 36,748 | 45,935 | 57,419 | 71,774 | 89,717 |
| Interest at 7.6% on debt | (9,851) | (9,851) | (9,851) | (9,851) | (9,851) | |
| Profit before tax | 26,897 | 36,084 | 47,568 | 61,923 | 79,866 | |
| Profit after tax | 17,099 | 19,285 | 25,873 | 34,106 | 44,399 | 57,264 |
| Dividends | (3,376) | (3,799) | (5,097) | (6,719) | (8,747) | (11,281) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4,292 | 17,047 | 34,688 | 58,506 | 90,133 | 1,31,631 |
| Working capital | (6,803) | (6,803) | (6,803) | (6,803) | (6,803) | (6,803) |
| Net block and other assets | 3,20,145 | 3,22,876 | 3,26,011 | 3,29,580 | 3,33,606 | 3,38,091 |
| Debt | 1,29,615 | 1,29,615 | 1,29,615 | 1,29,615 | 1,29,615 | 1,29,615 |
| Equity | 1,09,491 | 1,24,977 | 1,45,753 | 1,73,140 | 2,08,793 | 2,54,776 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 28,472 | 37,356 | 48,461 | 62,342 | 79,694 | |
| Investing (capex) | (11,918) | (14,619) | (17,924) | (21,969) | (26,915) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3,799) | (5,097) | (6,719) | (8,747) | (11,281) | |
| Net change in cash | 12,755 | 17,641 | 23,818 | 31,627 | 41,497 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 16,554 | 22,738 | 30,537 | 40,374 | 52,778 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 25% | 18.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹5,351 | 72.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.