₹803per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹803implied FY26 P/E 8.5× · EV/EBITDA 7.6×
Against CMP ₹365.00+120.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹653₹1,102
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹274₹500
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 220 |
| PV of terminal value | 524 |
| Enterprise value | 744 |
| less net debt | 91 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 835 |
| ÷ 1.04 crore shares | ₹803 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 826 | 876 | 936 | 1,010 | 1,102 |
| 10.50% | 773 | 814 | 864 | 923 | 995 |
| 11.00% | 727 | 762 | 803 | 852 | 910 |
| 11.50% | 688 | 717 | 752 | 792 | 840 |
| 12.00% | 653 | 679 | 708 | 742 | 782 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹365.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 699 · 804 · 930 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 50 | 83 | 64 | 35 | 34 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 27 |
| growth % | 1.3 | 68.3 | (22.9) | (45.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 25 | 54 | 28 | 98 | 93 | 89 | 84 | 80 | 76 |
| margin % | 49.8 | 64.6 | 43.7 | 277.3 | 277.3 | 277.3 | 277.3 | 277.3 | 277.3 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (9) | (9) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (6) |
| EBIT | 16 | 45 | 19 | 90 | 86 | 81 | 77 | 73 | 70 |
| less tax on EBIT | (23) | (22) | (21) | (20) | (19) | (18) | |||
| NOPAT | 67 | 63 | 60 | 57 | 54 | 52 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| less capex | (0) | (5) | (116) | (10) | (9) | (9) | (8) | (8) | (7) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 32 | 74 | (17) | — | 62 | 59 | 56 | 53 | 50 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 59 | 50 | 43 | 37 | 32 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 45.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 90 | 86 | 81 | 77 | 73 | 70 |
| Interest at 12.2% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 86 | 81 | 77 | 73 | 70 | |
| Profit after tax | 92 | 63 | 60 | 57 | 54 | 52 |
| Dividends | (42) | (29) | (27) | (26) | (25) | (23) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 91 | 124 | 155 | 185 | 213 | 240 |
| Working capital | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Net block and other assets | 605 | 607 | 609 | 610 | 612 | 613 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 669 | 703 | 736 | 767 | 797 | 825 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 71 | 68 | 64 | 61 | 58 | |
| Investing (capex) | (9) | (9) | (8) | (8) | (7) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (29) | (27) | (26) | (25) | (23) | |
| Net change in cash | 33 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 27 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 62 | 59 | 56 | 53 | 50 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 277.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹803 | 120.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.