Models
MALLCOM (INDIA) LIMITEDMALLCOMIndustrial Products
₹286per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹286implied FY26 P/E 6.7× · EV/EBITDA 4.9×
Against CMP ₹954.00−70.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3190%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹161₹537
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹929₹1,520
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 30 |
| PV of terminal value | 266 |
| Enterprise value | 296 |
| less net debt | (117) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 179 |
| ÷ 0.62 crore shares | ₹286 |
90% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 304 | 346 | 397 | 459 | 537 |
| 10.50% | 260 | 295 | 337 | 387 | 448 |
| 11.00% | 222 | 252 | 286 | 327 | 376 |
| 11.50% | 189 | 215 | 244 | 278 | 318 |
| 12.00% | 161 | 183 | 208 | 236 | 270 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹954.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 80 · 282 · 475 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.31 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 411 | 421 | 487 | 540 | 599 | 665 | 738 | 819 | 909 |
| growth % | 14.9 | 2.5 | 15.7 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 58 | 58 | 61 | 60 | 67 | 74 | 83 | 92 | 102 |
| margin % | 14.2 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (8) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (15) | (17) | (19) | (21) |
| EBIT | 50 | 50 | 51 | 48 | 53 | 59 | 66 | 73 | 81 |
| less tax on EBIT | (13) | (14) | (15) | (17) | (19) | (21) | |||
| NOPAT | 36 | 39 | 44 | 49 | 54 | 60 | |||
| add depreciation | 8 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 21 |
| less capex | (46) | (26) | (79) | (34) | (38) | (36) | (33) | (30) | (25) |
| less working-capital build | — | (20) | (22) | (24) | (27) | (30) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 8 | (20) | (77) | — | (4) | 1 | 8 | 16 | 26 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (4) | 1 | 6 | 11 | 16 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 120, dividends at 6.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 48 | 53 | 59 | 66 | 73 | 81 |
| Interest at 6.9% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 45 | 51 | 57 | 65 | 73 | |
| Profit after tax | 30 | 33 | 38 | 42 | 48 | 54 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | (9) | (16) | (17) | (11) | 6 |
| Working capital | 180 | 200 | 222 | 247 | 274 | 304 |
| Net block and other assets | 328 | 352 | 373 | 389 | 401 | 405 |
| Debt | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
| Equity | 318 | 350 | 385 | 425 | 470 | 520 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 27 | 31 | 35 | 40 | 45 | |
| Investing (capex) | (38) | (36) | (33) | (30) | (25) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Net change in cash | (13) | (7) | (1) | 7 | 16 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (10) | (5) | 2 | 10 | 19 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 11.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹286 | (70.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.