Models
MAN INFRA LTDMANINFRARealty
₹34per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹34implied FY26 P/E 6.4× · EV/EBITDA 10.5×
Against CMP ₹126.50−72.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹27₹48
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹77₹160
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 388 |
| PV of terminal value | 966 |
| Enterprise value | 1,354 |
| less net debt | 28 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,382 |
| ÷ 40.37 crore shares | ₹34 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 35 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 48 |
| 10.50% | 33 | 35 | 37 | 40 | 43 |
| 11.00% | 31 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 39 |
| 11.50% | 29 | 30 | 32 | 34 | 36 |
| 12.00% | 27 | 28 | 30 | 31 | 33 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹126.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 30 · 34 · 40 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.83 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,890 | 1,263 | 1,108 | 630 | 599 | 569 | 541 | 514 | 488 |
| growth % | 96.6 | (33.2) | (12.3) | (43.1) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 414 | 326 | 324 | 129 | 122 | 116 | 110 | 105 | 100 |
| margin % | 21.9 | 25.8 | 29.3 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (10) | (8) | (12) | (12) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (10) |
| EBIT | 403 | 316 | 316 | 116 | 110 | 105 | 99 | 94 | 90 |
| less tax on EBIT | (32) | (30) | (29) | (27) | (26) | (25) | |||
| NOPAT | 84 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 68 | 65 | |||
| add depreciation | 11 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| less capex | (15) | (14) | (9) | (25) | (23) | (20) | (17) | (14) | (12) |
| less working-capital build | — | 37 | 35 | 33 | 32 | 30 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 433 | 558 | 124 | — | 105 | 102 | 99 | 96 | 93 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 100 | 87 | 76 | 67 | 58 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 58, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 116 | 110 | 105 | 99 | 94 | 90 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 106 | 100 | 95 | 90 | 85 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 76 | 72 | 69 | 65 | 62 |
| Dividends | (35) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 86 | 188 | 286 | 382 | 475 | 564 |
| Working capital | 735 | 699 | 664 | 631 | 599 | 569 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,957 | 1,968 | 1,977 | 1,983 | 1,987 | 1,989 |
| Debt | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 |
| Equity | 2,313 | 2,389 | 2,462 | 2,531 | 2,596 | 2,657 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 125 | 119 | 113 | 107 | 101 | |
| Investing (capex) | (23) | (20) | (17) | (14) | (12) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 102 | 99 | 96 | 93 | 90 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 102 | 99 | 96 | 93 | 90 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 20.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹34 | (72.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.