Models
MANAK ALUMINIUM CO. LTD.MANAKALUCONon - Ferrous Metals
₹-6per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(6)implied FY26 P/E (4.7)× · EV/EBITDA 4.2×
Against CMP ₹36.90−116.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(14)₹8
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹22₹68
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 35 |
| PV of terminal value | 163 |
| Enterprise value | 198 |
| less net debt | (239) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (41) |
| ÷ 6.55 crore shares | ₹(6) |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (5) | (3) | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 10.50% | (8) | (6) | (3) | (0) | 3 |
| 11.00% | (10) | (8) | (6) | (4) | (1) |
| 11.50% | (12) | (10) | (9) | (7) | (4) |
| 12.00% | (14) | (12) | (11) | (9) | (7) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹36.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (23) · (7) · 8 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.23 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 466 | 432 | 509 | 564 | 626 | 695 | 771 | 856 | 950 |
| growth % | 6.9 | (7.3) | 17.7 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 34 | 35 | 43 | 47 | 53 | 58 | 65 | 72 | 80 |
| margin % | 7.2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (8) | (8) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (15) | (16) |
| EBIT | 27 | 27 | 35 | 38 | 42 | 47 | 52 | 57 | 64 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (18) | |||
| NOPAT | 27 | 30 | 34 | 37 | 42 | 46 | |||
| add depreciation | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 16 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | 0 | (17) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (20) | (19) |
| less working-capital build | — | (18) | (20) | (22) | (25) | (27) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 13 | 6 | 1 | — | 4 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 16 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 241, dividends at 6.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 38 | 42 | 47 | 52 | 57 | 64 |
| Interest at 11.7% on debt | (28) | (28) | (28) | (28) | (28) | |
| Profit before tax | 14 | 18 | 23 | 29 | 35 | |
| Profit after tax | 8 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 26 |
| Dividends | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | (14) | (29) | (42) | (51) | (58) |
| Working capital | 163 | 181 | 201 | 223 | 248 | 275 |
| Net block and other assets | 386 | 394 | 401 | 407 | 412 | 416 |
| Debt | 241 | 241 | 241 | 241 | 241 | 241 |
| Equity | 142 | 152 | 164 | 180 | 200 | 224 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 15 | |
| Investing (capex) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (20) | (19) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | (17) | (15) | (12) | (10) | (6) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (16) | (14) | (11) | (8) | (5) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 8.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(6) | (116.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.