Models
MANAKSIA LTD.MANAKSIAIndustrial Products
₹42per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹42implied FY26 P/E 4.4× · EV/EBITDA 6.6×
Against CMP ₹71.70−41.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31105%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹29₹67
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹42₹73
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (14) |
| PV of terminal value | 286 |
| Enterprise value | 272 |
| less net debt | 2 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 274 |
| ÷ 6.55 crore shares | ₹42 |
105% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 44 | 48 | 53 | 59 | 67 |
| 10.50% | 39 | 43 | 47 | 52 | 58 |
| 11.00% | 35 | 38 | 42 | 46 | 51 |
| 11.50% | 32 | 35 | 38 | 41 | 45 |
| 12.00% | 29 | 31 | 34 | 37 | 40 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹71.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 31 · 41 · 54 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,165 | 702 | 731 | 784 | 843 | 906 | 974 | 1,047 | 1,126 |
| growth % | (0.7) | (39.8) | 4.2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 146 | 63 | 48 | 41 | 45 | 48 | 52 | 55 | 60 |
| margin % | 12.5 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| less depreciation | (21) | (9) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) |
| EBIT | 125 | 53 | 42 | 36 | 39 | 42 | 45 | 48 | 52 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | |||
| NOPAT | 27 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 36 | 39 | |||
| add depreciation | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| less capex | (11) | (1) | (12) | (49) | (53) | (45) | (35) | (23) | (9) |
| less working-capital build | — | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (10) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 42 | 133 | (288) | — | (25) | (15) | (3) | 11 | 28 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (24) | (13) | (2) | 8 | 17 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 30, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 36 | 39 | 42 | 45 | 48 | 52 |
| Interest at 13% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 35 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 48 | |
| Profit after tax | 52 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 36 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 33 | 4 | (13) | (19) | (11) | 14 |
| Working capital | 96 | 103 | 111 | 120 | 129 | 138 |
| Net block and other assets | 733 | 780 | 818 | 846 | 862 | 864 |
| Debt | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Equity | 746 | 773 | 801 | 831 | 865 | 900 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 34 | |
| Investing (capex) | (53) | (45) | (35) | (23) | (9) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (28) | (18) | (6) | 8 | 25 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (28) | (18) | (6) | 8 | 25 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 5.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹42 | (41.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.