Models
MANALI PETROCHEMICALS LTMANALIPETCChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹116per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹116implied FY26 P/E 11.1× · EV/EBITDA 11.2×
Against CMP ₹85.30+35.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(4.6)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹92₹163
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹39₹93
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 312 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,367 |
| Enterprise value | 1,679 |
| less net debt | 314 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,993 |
| ÷ 17.21 crore shares | ₹116 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 119 | 127 | 137 | 148 | 163 |
| 10.50% | 111 | 117 | 125 | 135 | 146 |
| 11.00% | 104 | 109 | 116 | 123 | 133 |
| 11.50% | 98 | 102 | 108 | 114 | 122 |
| 12.00% | 92 | 96 | 101 | 106 | 113 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹85.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 93 · 115 · 141 |
| Draws below the CMP | 3% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,181 | 1,032 | 897 | 1,022 | 1,166 | 1,329 | 1,515 | 1,727 | 1,969 |
| growth % | (29.3) | (12.6) | (13.1) | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| EBITDA | 79 | 39 | 55 | 150 | 171 | 195 | 223 | 254 | 289 |
| margin % | 6.6 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 |
| less depreciation | (23) | (25) | (27) | (34) | (38) | (44) | (50) | (57) | (65) |
| EBIT | 55 | 14 | 28 | 117 | 133 | 151 | 173 | 197 | 224 |
| less tax on EBIT | (16) | (18) | (21) | (23) | (27) | (31) | |||
| NOPAT | 101 | 115 | 131 | 149 | 170 | 194 | |||
| add depreciation | 23 | 25 | 27 | 34 | 38 | 44 | 50 | 57 | 65 |
| less capex | (45) | (26) | (101) | (69) | (78) | (80) | (81) | (80) | (78) |
| less working-capital build | — | (29) | (33) | (38) | (43) | (49) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 47 | 37 | (120) | — | 46 | 62 | 80 | 104 | 132 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 44 | 53 | 62 | 72 | 82 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 58, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 117 | 133 | 151 | 173 | 197 | 224 |
| Interest at 14.4% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 124 | 143 | 164 | 188 | 216 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 108 | 124 | 142 | 163 | 187 |
| Dividends | (9) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 372 | 411 | 465 | 538 | 635 | 759 |
| Working capital | 209 | 238 | 271 | 309 | 353 | 402 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,015 | 1,054 | 1,090 | 1,121 | 1,144 | 1,157 |
| Debt | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 |
| Equity | 1,281 | 1,389 | 1,513 | 1,655 | 1,817 | 2,004 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 117 | 134 | 154 | 177 | 202 | |
| Investing (capex) | (78) | (80) | (81) | (80) | (78) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 39 | 54 | 73 | 96 | 124 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 39 | 54 | 73 | 96 | 124 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14% | 14.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹116 | 35.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.