Models
MANGAL ELECTRICAL IND LMEIL
₹98per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹98implied FY26 P/E 5.3× · EV/EBITDA 4.5×
Against CMP ₹281.20−65.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3194%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹67₹160
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹206₹560
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 18 |
| PV of terminal value | 292 |
| Enterprise value | 310 |
| less net debt | (40) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 270 |
| ÷ 2.77 crore shares | ₹98 |
94% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 102 | 113 | 125 | 141 | 160 |
| 10.50% | 91 | 100 | 110 | 123 | 138 |
| 11.00% | 82 | 89 | 98 | 108 | 120 |
| 11.50% | 74 | 80 | 87 | 96 | 106 |
| 12.00% | 67 | 72 | 78 | 85 | 94 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹281.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 43 · 97 · 148 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.29 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 580 | 626 | 676 | 730 | 789 | 852 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 68 | 74 | 80 | 86 | 93 | 101 |
| margin % | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) |
| EBIT | 62 | 68 | 73 | 79 | 85 | 92 |
| less tax on EBIT | (16) | (17) | (19) | (20) | (22) | (24) |
| NOPAT | 46 | 50 | 54 | 59 | 63 | 68 |
| add depreciation | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| less capex | (37) | (40) | (34) | (28) | (20) | (10) |
| less working-capital build | — | (28) | (31) | (33) | (36) | (38) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (12) | (4) | 5 | 16 | 28 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | (11) | (3) | 4 | 11 | 18 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 45, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 62 | 68 | 73 | 79 | 85 | 92 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 64 | 69 | 75 | 82 | 88 | |
| Profit after tax | 43 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 61 | 66 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | (9) | (15) | (13) | 0 | 26 |
| Working capital | 354 | 382 | 413 | 446 | 481 | 520 |
| Net block and other assets | 348 | 381 | 409 | 430 | 441 | 443 |
| Debt | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Equity | 590 | 638 | 689 | 745 | 806 | 872 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 26 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 36 | |
| Investing (capex) | (40) | (34) | (28) | (20) | (10) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (15) | (7) | 2 | 13 | 25 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (15) | (7) | 2 | 13 | 25 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 11.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹98 | (65.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.