Models
MANGALAM CEMENT LTDMANGLMCEMCement & Cement Products
₹317per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹317implied FY26 P/E 7.6× · EV/EBITDA 8.9×
Against CMP ₹1,025.10−69.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies27.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31100%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹133₹686
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹679₹1,120
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,729 |
| Enterprise value | 1,732 |
| less net debt | (861) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 871 |
| ÷ 2.75 crore shares | ₹317 |
100% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 341 | 404 | 479 | 571 | 686 |
| 10.50% | 277 | 329 | 390 | 464 | 555 |
| 11.00% | 222 | 266 | 317 | 377 | 450 |
| 11.50% | 174 | 211 | 254 | 305 | 364 |
| 12.00% | 133 | 165 | 201 | 244 | 293 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,025.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 127 · 310 · 521 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,802 | 1,725 | 1,681 | 1,758 | 1,838 | 1,920 | 2,007 | 2,097 | 2,191 |
| growth % | 15.0 | (4.2) | (2.6) | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| EBITDA | 128 | 202 | 157 | 195 | 204 | 213 | 223 | 233 | 243 |
| margin % | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| less depreciation | (69) | (74) | (79) | (81) | (85) | (88) | (92) | (96) | (101) |
| EBIT | 59 | 128 | 79 | 114 | 119 | 125 | 130 | 136 | 142 |
| less tax on EBIT | 42 | 44 | 46 | 48 | 50 | 53 | |||
| NOPAT | 156 | 164 | 171 | 179 | 187 | 195 | |||
| add depreciation | 69 | 74 | 79 | 81 | 85 | 88 | 92 | 96 | 101 |
| less capex | (127) | (99) | (125) | (348) | (364) | (312) | (254) | (191) | (121) |
| less working-capital build | — | (7) | (7) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 11 | 84 | 62 | — | (123) | (60) | 9 | 84 | 167 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (117) | (51) | 7 | 59 | 104 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 870, dividends at 3.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 114 | 119 | 125 | 130 | 136 | 142 |
| Interest at 8.6% on debt | (75) | (75) | (75) | (75) | (75) | |
| Profit before tax | 45 | 50 | 56 | 62 | 68 | |
| Profit after tax | 129 | 61 | 68 | 76 | 84 | 93 |
| Dividends | (4) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 8 | (219) | (383) | (479) | (499) | (438) |
| Working capital | 154 | 161 | 168 | 176 | 184 | 192 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,263 | 2,542 | 2,765 | 2,927 | 3,021 | 3,041 |
| Debt | 870 | 870 | 870 | 870 | 870 | 870 |
| Equity | 977 | 1,036 | 1,103 | 1,177 | 1,258 | 1,348 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 139 | 150 | 161 | 173 | 185 | |
| Investing (capex) | (364) | (312) | (254) | (191) | (121) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | |
| Net change in cash | (227) | (164) | (96) | (21) | 61 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (225) | (162) | (93) | (18) | 64 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4.5% | 11.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹317 | (69.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.