Models
MARATHON NXTGEN REALT LTDMARATHONRealty
₹224per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹224implied FY26 P/E 7.7× · EV/EBITDA 12.9×
Against CMP ₹436.00−48.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹177₹319
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹344₹685
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 456 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,074 |
| Enterprise value | 1,529 |
| less net debt | (16) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,513 |
| ÷ 6.74 crore shares | ₹224 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 232 | 247 | 267 | 290 | 319 |
| 10.50% | 215 | 228 | 244 | 262 | 285 |
| 11.00% | 200 | 212 | 224 | 240 | 258 |
| 11.50% | 188 | 197 | 208 | 221 | 236 |
| 12.00% | 177 | 185 | 194 | 205 | 218 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹436.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 197 · 225 · 259 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.86 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 717 | 705 | 580 | 496 | 471 | 448 | 425 | 404 | 384 |
| growth % | 134.1 | (1.7) | (17.7) | (14.5) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 239 | 233 | 173 | 119 | 113 | 107 | 102 | 97 | 92 |
| margin % | 33.4 | 33.0 | 29.8 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| EBIT | 236 | 230 | 170 | 117 | 112 | 106 | 101 | 96 | 91 |
| less tax on EBIT | (28) | (26) | (25) | (24) | (23) | (22) | |||
| NOPAT | 89 | 85 | 81 | 77 | 73 | 69 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| less capex | 0 | (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| less working-capital build | — | 42 | 40 | 38 | 36 | 34 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 386 | 21 | (25) | — | 129 | 122 | 115 | 109 | 103 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 122 | 104 | 89 | 76 | 65 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 99, dividends at 3.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 117 | 112 | 106 | 101 | 96 | 91 |
| Interest at 3.9% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 108 | 102 | 97 | 92 | 87 | |
| Profit after tax | 203 | 82 | 78 | 74 | 70 | 66 |
| Dividends | (7) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 83 | 206 | 323 | 432 | 536 | 635 |
| Working capital | 840 | 798 | 758 | 720 | 684 | 650 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,837 | 1,835 | 1,834 | 1,834 | 1,834 | 1,834 |
| Debt | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Equity | 2,330 | 2,409 | 2,485 | 2,556 | 2,624 | 2,688 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 126 | 119 | 113 | 107 | 102 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | 123 | 116 | 110 | 104 | 98 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 126 | 119 | 112 | 106 | 100 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 24% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹224 | (48.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.