Models
MARICO LIMITEDMARICOAgricultural Food & other Products
₹427per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹427implied FY26 P/E 29.2× · EV/EBITDA 23.8×
Against CMP ₹802.10−46.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹325₹631
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹690₹889
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 10,507 |
| PV of terminal value | 44,922 |
| Enterprise value | 55,429 |
| less net debt | 49 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 55,478 |
| ÷ 130.00 crore shares | ₹427 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 441 | 476 | 517 | 568 | 631 |
| 10.50% | 405 | 434 | 468 | 508 | 558 |
| 11.00% | 375 | 399 | 427 | 460 | 500 |
| 11.50% | 348 | 368 | 392 | 420 | 452 |
| 12.00% | 325 | 342 | 362 | 386 | 413 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹802.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 325 · 423 · 551 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.46 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,764 | 9,653 | 10,831 | 13,611 | 17,082 | 21,438 | 26,904 | 33,765 | 42,375 |
| growth % | 2.6 | (1.1) | 12.2 | 25.7 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,810 | 2,026 | 2,139 | 2,328 | 2,921 | 3,666 | 4,601 | 5,774 | 7,246 |
| margin % | 18.5 | 21.0 | 19.7 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 |
| less depreciation | (155) | (158) | (178) | (202) | (256) | (322) | (404) | (506) | (636) |
| EBIT | 1,655 | 1,868 | 1,961 | 2,126 | 2,665 | 3,344 | 4,197 | 5,267 | 6,610 |
| less tax on EBIT | (434) | (544) | (682) | (856) | (1,075) | (1,349) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,692 | 2,121 | 2,662 | 3,341 | 4,193 | 5,262 | |||
| add depreciation | 155 | 158 | 178 | 202 | 256 | 322 | 404 | 506 | 636 |
| less capex | (182) | (153) | (161) | (319) | (393) | (466) | (552) | (650) | (763) |
| less working-capital build | — | (326) | (409) | (514) | (645) | (809) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,237 | 1,283 | 1,202 | — | 1,658 | 2,108 | 2,679 | 3,404 | 4,325 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,574 | 1,802 | 2,064 | 2,363 | 2,704 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 355, dividends at 56.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,126 | 2,665 | 3,344 | 4,197 | 5,267 | 6,610 |
| Interest at 14.4% on debt | (51) | (51) | (51) | (51) | (51) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,614 | 3,293 | 4,146 | 5,216 | 6,559 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,762 | 2,080 | 2,621 | 3,300 | 4,152 | 5,221 |
| Dividends | (989) | (1,167) | (1,471) | (1,851) | (2,329) | (2,929) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 404 | 854 | 1,451 | 2,238 | 3,272 | 4,628 |
| Working capital | 1,283 | 1,609 | 2,018 | 2,532 | 3,177 | 3,987 |
| Net block and other assets | 8,388 | 8,525 | 8,670 | 8,818 | 8,961 | 9,088 |
| Debt | 355 | 355 | 355 | 355 | 355 | 355 |
| Equity | 4,494 | 5,407 | 6,558 | 8,007 | 9,830 | 12,122 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,010 | 2,533 | 3,190 | 4,014 | 5,048 | |
| Investing (capex) | (393) | (466) | (552) | (650) | (763) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,167) | (1,471) | (1,851) | (2,329) | (2,929) | |
| Net change in cash | 450 | 597 | 787 | 1,034 | 1,356 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,618 | 2,067 | 2,638 | 3,364 | 4,285 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 25.5% | 17.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹427 | (46.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.