Models
MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD.MARUTIAutomobiles
₹10,003per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹10,003implied FY26 P/E 21.9× · EV/EBITDA 14.7×
Against CMP ₹12,400.00−19.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies25.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹7,612₹14,782
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹12,201₹17,370
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 59,944 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,54,487 |
| Enterprise value | 3,14,431 |
| less net debt | 67 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,14,498 |
| ÷ 31.44 crore shares | ₹10,003 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 10,346 | 11,152 | 12,120 | 13,303 | 14,782 |
| 10.50% | 9,502 | 10,172 | 10,965 | 11,915 | 13,077 |
| 11.00% | 8,781 | 9,345 | 10,003 | 10,781 | 11,715 |
| 11.50% | 8,157 | 8,637 | 9,191 | 9,837 | 10,601 |
| 12.00% | 7,612 | 8,024 | 8,496 | 9,040 | 9,675 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹12,400.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 7,476 · 9,926 · 13,109 |
| Draws below the CMP | 85% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.56 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.44 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,17,571 | 1,41,858 | 1,52,913 | 1,83,316 | 2,19,979 | 2,63,975 | 3,16,770 | 3,80,124 | 4,56,149 |
| growth % | 33.1 | 20.7 | 7.8 | 19.9 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| EBITDA | 11,195 | 18,526 | 20,156 | 21,456 | 25,738 | 30,885 | 37,062 | 44,475 | 53,369 |
| margin % | 9.5 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
| less depreciation | (2,826) | (5,256) | (5,608) | (6,742) | (8,139) | (9,767) | (11,720) | (14,065) | (16,878) |
| EBIT | 8,369 | 13,271 | 14,548 | 14,715 | 17,598 | 21,118 | 25,342 | 30,410 | 36,492 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3,473) | (4,153) | (4,984) | (5,981) | (7,177) | (8,612) | |||
| NOPAT | 11,242 | 13,445 | 16,134 | 19,361 | 23,233 | 27,880 | |||
| add depreciation | 2,826 | 5,256 | 5,608 | 6,742 | 8,139 | 9,767 | 11,720 | 14,065 | 16,878 |
| less capex | (6,117) | (8,916) | (10,250) | (10,123) | (12,099) | (13,819) | (15,743) | (17,885) | (20,253) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 3,135 | 7,885 | 5,886 | — | 9,486 | 12,082 | 15,338 | 19,413 | 24,504 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 9,003 | 10,331 | 11,816 | 13,473 | 15,321 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 28.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 14,715 | 17,598 | 21,118 | 25,342 | 30,410 | 36,492 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 17,598 | 21,118 | 25,342 | 30,410 | 36,492 | |
| Profit after tax | 14,680 | 13,445 | 16,134 | 19,361 | 23,233 | 27,880 |
| Dividends | (4,244) | (3,886) | (4,663) | (5,595) | (6,714) | (8,057) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 67 | 5,667 | 13,086 | 22,829 | 35,527 | 51,974 |
| Working capital | (5,474) | (5,474) | (5,474) | (5,474) | (5,474) | (5,474) |
| Net block and other assets | 1,54,288 | 1,58,248 | 1,62,300 | 1,66,323 | 1,70,143 | 1,73,519 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,07,156 | 1,16,716 | 1,28,187 | 1,41,953 | 1,58,472 | 1,78,294 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 21,584 | 25,901 | 31,081 | 37,298 | 44,757 | |
| Investing (capex) | (12,099) | (13,819) | (15,743) | (17,885) | (20,253) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3,886) | (4,663) | (5,595) | (6,714) | (8,057) | |
| Net change in cash | 5,600 | 7,419 | 9,743 | 12,699 | 16,447 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 9,486 | 12,082 | 15,338 | 19,413 | 24,504 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20% | 11.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹10,003 | (19.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.