₹2,213per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,213implied FY26 P/E 16.4× · EV/EBITDA 11.8×
Against CMP ₹1,618.00+36.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(3.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,747₹3,140
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,334₹2,580
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,720 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,857 |
| Enterprise value | 6,577 |
| less net debt | 283 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,860 |
| ÷ 3.10 crore shares | ₹2,213 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,282 | 2,438 | 2,625 | 2,854 | 3,140 |
| 10.50% | 2,117 | 2,247 | 2,400 | 2,584 | 2,809 |
| 11.00% | 1,976 | 2,085 | 2,213 | 2,363 | 2,544 |
| 11.50% | 1,854 | 1,947 | 2,054 | 2,180 | 2,327 |
| 12.00% | 1,747 | 1,827 | 1,919 | 2,024 | 2,147 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,618.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,852 · 2,198 · 2,622 |
| Draws below the CMP | 1% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,563 | 3,055 | 3,455 | 3,699 | 3,958 | 4,235 | 4,531 | 4,848 | 5,188 |
| growth % | 17.4 | 19.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 481 | 505 | 554 | 555 | 594 | 635 | 680 | 727 | 778 |
| margin % | 18.8 | 16.5 | 16.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| less depreciation | (67) | (90) | (75) | (73) | (79) | (85) | (91) | (97) | (104) |
| EBIT | 414 | 415 | 479 | 483 | 514 | 551 | 589 | 630 | 674 |
| less tax on EBIT | (109) | (116) | (124) | (133) | (142) | (152) | |||
| NOPAT | 374 | 399 | 427 | 457 | 488 | 523 | |||
| add depreciation | 67 | 90 | 75 | 73 | 79 | 85 | 91 | 97 | 104 |
| less capex | (32) | (31) | (20) | (28) | (32) | (51) | (72) | (97) | (125) |
| less working-capital build | — | (26) | (28) | (30) | (32) | (34) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 76 | 388 | 375 | — | 420 | 433 | 445 | 456 | 468 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 399 | 370 | 343 | 317 | 292 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 421, dividends at 18.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 483 | 514 | 551 | 589 | 630 | 674 |
| Interest at 6.6% on debt | (28) | (28) | (28) | (28) | (28) | |
| Profit before tax | 487 | 523 | 561 | 602 | 647 | |
| Profit after tax | 404 | 377 | 405 | 435 | 467 | 501 |
| Dividends | (74) | (69) | (75) | (80) | (86) | (92) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 704 | 1,033 | 1,370 | 1,713 | 2,062 | 2,416 |
| Working capital | 373 | 399 | 427 | 457 | 489 | 523 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,232 | 3,184 | 3,150 | 3,132 | 3,132 | 3,153 |
| Debt | 421 | 421 | 421 | 421 | 421 | 421 |
| Equity | 2,992 | 3,300 | 3,630 | 3,985 | 4,366 | 4,775 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 430 | 462 | 496 | 532 | 571 | |
| Investing (capex) | (32) | (51) | (72) | (97) | (125) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (69) | (75) | (80) | (86) | (92) | |
| Net change in cash | 329 | 336 | 343 | 349 | 354 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 399 | 411 | 423 | 435 | 446 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 15% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,213 | 36.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.