Models
MATRIMONY.COM LIMITEDMATRIMONYRetailing
₹124per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹124implied FY26 P/E 5.8× · EV/EBITDA 4.9×
Against CMP ₹519.00−76.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies41.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3160%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹102₹168
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹364₹573
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 103 |
| PV of terminal value | 151 |
| Enterprise value | 254 |
| less net debt | 3 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 257 |
| ÷ 2.07 crore shares | ₹124 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 128 | 135 | 144 | 154 | 168 |
| 10.50% | 120 | 126 | 133 | 142 | 152 |
| 11.00% | 113 | 118 | 124 | 131 | 140 |
| 11.50% | 107 | 112 | 117 | 123 | 129 |
| 12.00% | 102 | 106 | 110 | 115 | 121 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹519.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 93 · 123 · 157 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.35 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 456 | 481 | 456 | 460 | 465 | 469 | 474 | 479 | 483 |
| growth % | 4.9 | 5.6 | (5.3) | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | 67 | 72 | 58 | 52 | 52 | 53 | 53 | 54 | 54 |
| margin % | 14.8 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| less depreciation | (30) | (28) | (29) | (27) | (27) | (28) | (28) | (28) | (29) |
| EBIT | 37 | 44 | 29 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |||
| NOPAT | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | |||
| add depreciation | 30 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 29 |
| less capex | (6) | (20) | (13) | (11) | (11) | (17) | (22) | (28) | (34) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 51 | 41 | 44 | — | 36 | 31 | 25 | 20 | 15 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 34 | 26 | 20 | 14 | 9 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 63% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 | |
| Profit after tax | 34 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Dividends | (22) | (12) | (12) | (13) | (13) | (13) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 26 | 45 | 57 | 65 | 67 |
| Working capital | (61) | (61) | (61) | (61) | (61) | (61) |
| Net block and other assets | 498 | 482 | 471 | 466 | 466 | 471 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 206 | 214 | 221 | 228 | 236 | 243 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 47 | 47 | 48 | 48 | 49 | |
| Investing (capex) | (11) | (17) | (22) | (28) | (34) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (12) | (12) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Net change in cash | 23 | 18 | 13 | 7 | 2 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 36 | 31 | 25 | 20 | 15 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 11.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹124 | (76.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.