Models
MAX HEALTHCARE INS LTDMAXHEALTHHealthcare Services
₹386per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹386implied FY26 P/E 25.8× · EV/EBITDA 18.4×
Against CMP ₹1,037.70−62.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹282₹593
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹903₹1,222
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6,132 |
| PV of terminal value | 34,249 |
| Enterprise value | 40,381 |
| less net debt | (2,813) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 37,568 |
| ÷ 97.32 crore shares | ₹386 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 401 | 436 | 478 | 529 | 593 |
| 10.50% | 364 | 393 | 428 | 469 | 519 |
| 11.00% | 333 | 357 | 386 | 420 | 460 |
| 11.50% | 306 | 327 | 351 | 379 | 412 |
| 12.00% | 282 | 300 | 321 | 344 | 372 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,037.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 287 · 383 · 506 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.51 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,563 | 5,406 | 7,028 | 8,373 | 9,964 | 11,858 | 14,111 | 16,792 | 19,982 |
| growth % | 16.1 | 18.5 | 30.0 | 19.1 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,241 | 1,492 | 1,775 | 2,195 | 2,611 | 3,107 | 3,697 | 4,399 | 5,235 |
| margin % | 27.2 | 27.6 | 25.3 | 26.2 | 26.2 | 26.2 | 26.2 | 26.2 | 26.2 |
| less depreciation | (232) | (245) | (359) | (447) | (528) | (628) | (748) | (890) | (1,059) |
| EBIT | 1,008 | 1,247 | 1,416 | 1,748 | 2,083 | 2,478 | 2,949 | 3,509 | 4,176 |
| less tax on EBIT | (243) | (289) | (344) | (410) | (488) | (580) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,505 | 1,793 | 2,134 | 2,539 | 3,022 | 3,596 | |||
| add depreciation | 232 | 245 | 359 | 447 | 528 | 628 | 748 | 890 | 1,059 |
| less capex | (336) | (779) | (966) | (1,485) | (1,764) | (1,763) | (1,698) | (1,544) | (1,271) |
| less working-capital build | — | (43) | (51) | (61) | (72) | (86) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 874 | 343 | 494 | — | 515 | 948 | 1,529 | 2,295 | 3,298 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 488 | 811 | 1,178 | 1,593 | 2,062 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3,478, dividends at 10.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,748 | 2,083 | 2,478 | 2,949 | 3,509 | 4,176 |
| Interest at 7.2% on debt | (250) | (250) | (250) | (250) | (250) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,832 | 2,228 | 2,699 | 3,259 | 3,926 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,442 | 1,577 | 1,918 | 2,324 | 2,806 | 3,380 |
| Dividends | (146) | (159) | (194) | (235) | (283) | (341) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 666 | 805 | 1,344 | 2,423 | 4,219 | 6,960 |
| Working capital | 225 | 268 | 319 | 380 | 452 | 538 |
| Net block and other assets | 16,340 | 17,576 | 18,710 | 19,660 | 20,314 | 20,526 |
| Debt | 3,478 | 3,478 | 3,478 | 3,478 | 3,478 | 3,478 |
| Equity | 10,747 | 12,165 | 13,889 | 15,978 | 18,501 | 21,539 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,063 | 2,495 | 3,011 | 3,624 | 4,353 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,764) | (1,763) | (1,698) | (1,544) | (1,271) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (159) | (194) | (235) | (283) | (341) | |
| Net change in cash | 140 | 539 | 1,078 | 1,796 | 2,741 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 299 | 733 | 1,313 | 2,080 | 3,082 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19% | 26.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹386 | (62.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.