Models
MAZAGON DOCK SHIPBUIL LTDMAZDOCKIndustrial Manufacturing
₹1,028per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,028implied FY26 P/E 14.5× · EV/EBITDA 17.3×
Against CMP ₹2,339.00−56.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies39.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹805₹1,473
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,057₹3,061
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 8,795 |
| PV of terminal value | 30,367 |
| Enterprise value | 39,162 |
| less net debt | 2,291 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 41,453 |
| ÷ 40.34 crore shares | ₹1,028 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,060 | 1,135 | 1,225 | 1,335 | 1,473 |
| 10.50% | 981 | 1,044 | 1,117 | 1,206 | 1,314 |
| 11.00% | 914 | 966 | 1,028 | 1,100 | 1,187 |
| 11.50% | 856 | 900 | 952 | 1,012 | 1,083 |
| 12.00% | 805 | 843 | 887 | 938 | 997 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,339.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 843 · 1,023 · 1,243 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.50 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,827 | 9,467 | 11,432 | 13,006 | 14,827 | 16,903 | 19,269 | 21,967 | 25,043 |
| growth % | 36.5 | 20.9 | 20.8 | 13.8 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| EBITDA | 798 | 1,412 | 2,060 | 2,266 | 2,580 | 2,941 | 3,353 | 3,822 | 4,357 |
| margin % | 10.2 | 14.9 | 18.0 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 |
| less depreciation | (76) | (83) | (115) | (97) | (104) | (118) | (135) | (154) | (175) |
| EBIT | 722 | 1,328 | 1,945 | 2,169 | 2,476 | 2,823 | 3,218 | 3,669 | 4,182 |
| less tax on EBIT | (547) | (624) | (711) | (811) | (924) | (1,054) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,622 | 1,852 | 2,111 | 2,407 | 2,744 | 3,128 | |||
| add depreciation | 76 | 83 | 115 | 97 | 104 | 118 | 135 | 154 | 175 |
| less capex | (136) | (103) | (743) | (64) | (74) | (99) | (129) | (166) | (210) |
| less working-capital build | — | (100) | (114) | (130) | (148) | (169) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 722 | 581 | 1,335 | — | 1,782 | 2,017 | 2,283 | 2,584 | 2,924 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,691 | 1,724 | 1,758 | 1,793 | 1,828 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 440, dividends at 30% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,169 | 2,476 | 2,823 | 3,218 | 3,669 | 4,182 |
| Interest at 16.3% on debt | (72) | (72) | (72) | (72) | (72) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,404 | 2,751 | 3,146 | 3,597 | 4,110 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,583 | 1,798 | 2,058 | 2,353 | 2,690 | 3,075 |
| Dividends | (775) | (540) | (617) | (706) | (807) | (922) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2,731 | 3,920 | 5,266 | 6,789 | 8,511 | 10,459 |
| Working capital | 709 | 809 | 923 | 1,054 | 1,202 | 1,371 |
| Net block and other assets | 24,017 | 23,988 | 23,968 | 23,962 | 23,974 | 24,009 |
| Debt | 440 | 440 | 440 | 440 | 440 | 440 |
| Equity | 9,984 | 11,243 | 12,683 | 14,331 | 16,214 | 18,366 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,802 | 2,062 | 2,358 | 2,696 | 3,081 | |
| Investing (capex) | (74) | (99) | (129) | (166) | (210) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (540) | (617) | (706) | (807) | (922) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,188 | 1,346 | 1,523 | 1,723 | 1,948 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,728 | 1,963 | 2,229 | 2,530 | 2,870 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14% | 17.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,028 | (56.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.