₹175per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹175implied FY26 P/E 13.8× · EV/EBITDA 7.8×
Against CMP ₹318.65−45.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹139₹248
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹293₹576
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 341 |
| PV of terminal value | 912 |
| Enterprise value | 1,254 |
| less net debt | 55 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,309 |
| ÷ 7.47 crore shares | ₹175 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 181 | 193 | 207 | 225 | 248 |
| 10.50% | 168 | 178 | 190 | 204 | 222 |
| 11.00% | 157 | 165 | 175 | 187 | 201 |
| 11.50% | 147 | 154 | 163 | 173 | 184 |
| 12.00% | 139 | 145 | 152 | 160 | 170 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹318.65; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 69 · 172 · 269 |
| Draws below the CMP | 98% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.96 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.17 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.15 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 635 | 723 | 905 | 1,131 | 1,414 | 1,767 | 2,209 | 2,761 |
| growth % | — | 14.0 | 25.1 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| EBITDA | 112 | 154 | 160 | 200 | 250 | 313 | 391 | 489 |
| margin % | 17.7 | 21.3 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 |
| less depreciation | (43) | (56) | (77) | (96) | (120) | (150) | (188) | (235) |
| EBIT | 69 | 98 | 83 | 104 | 130 | 163 | 203 | 254 |
| less tax on EBIT | 9 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 23 | 28 | ||
| NOPAT | 93 | 116 | 144 | 181 | 226 | 282 | ||
| add depreciation | 43 | 56 | 77 | 96 | 120 | 150 | 188 | 235 |
| less capex | (18) | (46) | (56) | (70) | (102) | (145) | (203) | (282) |
| less working-capital build | — | (60) | (75) | (94) | (118) | (147) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 48 | 92 | — | 81 | 87 | 92 | 92 | 88 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 77 | 75 | 71 | 64 | 55 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 83 | 104 | 130 | 163 | 203 | 254 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 104 | 130 | 163 | 203 | 254 | |
| Profit after tax | 88 | 116 | 144 | 181 | 226 | 282 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 55 | 136 | 223 | 315 | 407 | 495 |
| Working capital | 241 | 302 | 377 | 471 | 589 | 737 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,077 | 1,051 | 1,032 | 1,027 | 1,042 | 1,089 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 852 | 968 | 1,112 | 1,293 | 1,519 | 1,801 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 151 | 189 | 236 | 296 | 369 | |
| Investing (capex) | (70) | (102) | (145) | (203) | (282) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 81 | 87 | 92 | 92 | 88 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 81 | 87 | 92 | 92 | 88 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 25% | 17.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹175 | (45.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.