Models
MEDPLUS HEALTH SERV LTDMEDPLUSRetailing
₹225per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹225implied FY26 P/E 12.8× · EV/EBITDA 4.1×
Against CMP ₹660.45−65.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3159%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹188₹299
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹648₹1,022
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,018 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,487 |
| Enterprise value | 2,505 |
| less net debt | 198 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,703 |
| ÷ 12.01 crore shares | ₹225 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 231 | 243 | 258 | 276 | 299 |
| 10.50% | 218 | 228 | 240 | 255 | 272 |
| 11.00% | 206 | 215 | 225 | 237 | 251 |
| 11.50% | 196 | 204 | 212 | 222 | 234 |
| 12.00% | 188 | 194 | 201 | 210 | 219 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹660.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 113 · 223 · 326 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.93 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.31 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,558 | 5,625 | 6,136 | 6,892 | 7,754 | 8,723 | 9,814 | 11,040 | 12,420 |
| growth % | 20.6 | 23.4 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 266 | 354 | 487 | 607 | 682 | 768 | 864 | 972 | 1,093 |
| margin % | 5.8 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| less depreciation | (182) | (224) | (250) | (283) | (318) | (358) | (402) | (453) | (509) |
| EBIT | 84 | 130 | 237 | 324 | 364 | 410 | 461 | 519 | 584 |
| less tax on EBIT | (66) | (74) | (83) | (93) | (105) | (118) | |||
| NOPAT | 259 | 291 | 327 | 368 | 414 | 466 | |||
| add depreciation | 182 | 224 | 250 | 283 | 318 | 358 | 402 | 453 | 509 |
| less capex | (169) | (84) | (59) | (123) | (140) | (225) | (330) | (457) | (611) |
| less working-capital build | — | (138) | (155) | (174) | (196) | (221) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (79) | 59 | 481 | — | 331 | 305 | 266 | 213 | 143 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 314 | 261 | 205 | 148 | 90 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 324 | 364 | 410 | 461 | 519 | 584 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 364 | 410 | 461 | 519 | 584 | |
| Profit after tax | 220 | 291 | 327 | 368 | 414 | 466 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 198 | 530 | 834 | 1,101 | 1,314 | 1,457 |
| Working capital | 1,101 | 1,239 | 1,394 | 1,568 | 1,765 | 1,985 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,633 | 2,455 | 2,322 | 2,250 | 2,254 | 2,356 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,975 | 2,265 | 2,593 | 2,961 | 3,375 | 3,841 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 471 | 530 | 596 | 670 | 754 | |
| Investing (capex) | (140) | (225) | (330) | (457) | (611) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 331 | 305 | 266 | 213 | 143 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 331 | 305 | 266 | 213 | 143 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 8.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹225 | (65.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.