Models
MENON BEARINGS LIMITEDMENONBEAuto Components
₹90per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹90implied FY26 P/E 11.5× · EV/EBITDA 9.2×
Against CMP ₹301.00−70.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3187%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹65₹140
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹102₹324
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 68 |
| PV of terminal value | 472 |
| Enterprise value | 540 |
| less net debt | (35) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 505 |
| ÷ 5.60 crore shares | ₹90 |
87% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 94 | 102 | 112 | 124 | 140 |
| 10.50% | 85 | 92 | 100 | 110 | 122 |
| 11.00% | 77 | 83 | 90 | 98 | 108 |
| 11.50% | 71 | 76 | 82 | 88 | 96 |
| 12.00% | 65 | 70 | 75 | 80 | 87 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹301.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 56 · 88 · 122 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 217 | 211 | 239 | 294 | 361 | 445 | 547 | 672 | 827 |
| growth % | — | (2.9) | 13.5 | 22.8 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 |
| EBITDA | 50 | 41 | 42 | 59 | 72 | 89 | 109 | 134 | 165 |
| margin % | 23.2 | 19.7 | 17.5 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (12) | (15) | (19) | (23) | (28) |
| EBIT | 42 | 33 | 33 | 49 | 60 | 74 | 91 | 112 | 137 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (14) | (17) | (22) | (26) | (33) | |||
| NOPAT | 37 | 46 | 56 | 69 | 85 | 105 | |||
| add depreciation | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 23 | 28 |
| less capex | (6) | (13) | (31) | (27) | (33) | (35) | (36) | (36) | (34) |
| less working-capital build | — | (23) | (29) | (35) | (44) | (54) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 44 | 16 | (4) | — | 1 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 45 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1 | 6 | 12 | 20 | 28 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 46, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 49 | 60 | 74 | 91 | 112 | 137 |
| Interest at 11.6% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 55 | 68 | 85 | 106 | 132 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 42 | 52 | 65 | 81 | 101 |
| Dividends | (11) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 11 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 48 | 89 |
| Working capital | 102 | 125 | 154 | 190 | 233 | 287 |
| Net block and other assets | 155 | 176 | 196 | 213 | 227 | 232 |
| Debt | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 |
| Equity | 185 | 227 | 279 | 344 | 426 | 526 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 31 | 39 | 48 | 60 | 75 | |
| Investing (capex) | (33) | (35) | (36) | (36) | (34) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (3) | 3 | 12 | 24 | 41 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (3) | 3 | 12 | 24 | 41 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 23% | 20% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹90 | (70.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.