Models
MENON PISTONS LTD.MENNPISAuto Components
₹82per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹82implied FY26 P/E 16.4× · EV/EBITDA 9.0×
Against CMP ₹78.15+4.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies16.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3190%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹60₹125
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹52₹86
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 43 |
| PV of terminal value | 377 |
| Enterprise value | 420 |
| less net debt | (2) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 418 |
| ÷ 5.10 crore shares | ₹82 |
90% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 85 | 92 | 101 | 112 | 125 |
| 10.50% | 77 | 83 | 91 | 99 | 110 |
| 11.00% | 71 | 76 | 82 | 89 | 98 |
| 11.50% | 65 | 70 | 75 | 80 | 87 |
| 12.00% | 60 | 64 | 68 | 73 | 79 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹78.15; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 57 · 80 · 108 |
| Draws below the CMP | 45% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 251 | 256 | 254 | 304 | 365 | 438 | 526 | 631 | 757 |
| growth % | 18.4 | 1.6 | (0.8) | 19.9 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| EBITDA | 47 | 45 | 45 | 47 | 56 | 67 | 80 | 96 | 116 |
| margin % | 18.7 | 17.8 | 17.7 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 |
| less depreciation | (10) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (17) | (20) | (25) | (30) |
| EBIT | 37 | 36 | 34 | 35 | 42 | 50 | 60 | 72 | 86 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (19) | (22) | |||
| NOPAT | 26 | 31 | 37 | 44 | 53 | 64 | |||
| add depreciation | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 25 | 30 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | 0 | (32) | (38) | (40) | (40) | (39) | (35) |
| less working-capital build | — | (11) | (13) | (15) | (18) | (22) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 49 | 22 | 39 | — | (4) | 2 | 10 | 21 | 36 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (4) | 2 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5, dividends at 19.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 35 | 42 | 50 | 60 | 72 | 86 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 41 | 50 | 60 | 72 | 86 | |
| Profit after tax | 26 | 31 | 37 | 44 | 53 | 64 |
| Dividends | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (13) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | (8) | (13) | (12) | (2) | 21 |
| Working capital | 53 | 63 | 76 | 91 | 109 | 131 |
| Net block and other assets | 176 | 200 | 223 | 242 | 256 | 262 |
| Debt | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Equity | 178 | 202 | 232 | 267 | 310 | 361 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 34 | 41 | 50 | 59 | 71 | |
| Investing (capex) | (38) | (40) | (40) | (39) | (35) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (13) | |
| Net change in cash | (10) | (6) | 1 | 10 | 23 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (4) | 2 | 10 | 21 | 36 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20% | 15.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹82 | 4.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.