Models
MINDA CORPORATION LTDMINDACORPAuto Components
₹243per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹243implied FY26 P/E 11.4× · EV/EBITDA 9.6×
Against CMP ₹707.00−65.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹171₹387
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹469₹769
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,069 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,848 |
| Enterprise value | 6,917 |
| less net debt | (1,109) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,808 |
| ÷ 23.91 crore shares | ₹243 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 253 | 277 | 307 | 342 | 387 |
| 10.50% | 228 | 248 | 272 | 301 | 336 |
| 11.00% | 206 | 223 | 243 | 266 | 295 |
| 11.50% | 187 | 202 | 218 | 238 | 261 |
| 12.00% | 171 | 183 | 198 | 214 | 233 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹707.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 155 · 238 · 338 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,300 | 4,651 | 5,056 | 6,185 | 7,577 | 9,282 | 11,370 | 13,929 | 17,063 |
| growth % | 44.5 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 22.3 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| EBITDA | 461 | 514 | 575 | 720 | 879 | 1,077 | 1,319 | 1,616 | 1,979 |
| margin % | 10.7 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 |
| less depreciation | (138) | (166) | (204) | (230) | (280) | (343) | (421) | (515) | (631) |
| EBIT | 323 | 349 | 370 | 490 | 599 | 733 | 898 | 1,100 | 1,348 |
| less tax on EBIT | (136) | (166) | (203) | (249) | (305) | (373) | |||
| NOPAT | 354 | 433 | 530 | 649 | 796 | 975 | |||
| add depreciation | 138 | 166 | 204 | 230 | 280 | 343 | 421 | 515 | 631 |
| less capex | (251) | (252) | (350) | (394) | (485) | (549) | (616) | (687) | (758) |
| less working-capital build | — | (127) | (155) | (190) | (233) | (285) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 348 | 35 | 194 | — | 102 | 170 | 264 | 391 | 563 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 96 | 145 | 203 | 272 | 352 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,212, dividends at 9.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 490 | 599 | 733 | 898 | 1,100 | 1,348 |
| Interest at 9.5% on debt | (115) | (115) | (115) | (115) | (115) | |
| Profit before tax | 483 | 618 | 783 | 985 | 1,233 | |
| Profit after tax | 360 | 350 | 447 | 566 | 712 | 891 |
| Dividends | (35) | (34) | (44) | (55) | (70) | (87) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 103 | 87 | 130 | 255 | 493 | 886 |
| Working capital | 561 | 688 | 843 | 1,033 | 1,266 | 1,551 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,832 | 5,036 | 5,241 | 5,437 | 5,608 | 5,735 |
| Debt | 1,212 | 1,212 | 1,212 | 1,212 | 1,212 | 1,212 |
| Equity | 2,659 | 2,974 | 3,377 | 3,888 | 4,530 | 5,334 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 503 | 635 | 797 | 995 | 1,237 | |
| Investing (capex) | (485) | (549) | (616) | (687) | (758) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (34) | (44) | (55) | (70) | (87) | |
| Net change in cash | (16) | 43 | 125 | 238 | 393 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 18 | 87 | 181 | 308 | 480 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 22.5% | 11.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹243 | (65.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.