Models
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₹268per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹268implied FY26 P/E 7.6× · EV/EBITDA 7.6×
Against CMP ₹634.00−57.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3164%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹182₹438
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹288₹688
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 763 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,380 |
| Enterprise value | 2,143 |
| less net debt | (849) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,294 |
| ÷ 4.83 crore shares | ₹268 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 281 | 310 | 344 | 386 | 438 |
| 10.50% | 251 | 274 | 302 | 336 | 377 |
| 11.00% | 225 | 245 | 268 | 295 | 328 |
| 11.50% | 202 | 219 | 239 | 261 | 288 |
| 12.00% | 182 | 197 | 214 | 233 | 255 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹634.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 174 · 266 · 366 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,462 | 1,563 | 1,525 | 1,590 | 1,653 | 1,720 | 1,788 | 1,860 | 1,934 |
| growth % | 30.2 | 6.9 | (2.4) | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| EBITDA | 273 | 294 | 296 | 281 | 291 | 303 | 315 | 327 | 340 |
| margin % | 18.7 | 18.8 | 19.4 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 |
| less depreciation | (79) | (83) | (93) | (103) | (107) | (112) | (116) | (121) | (126) |
| EBIT | 194 | 211 | 203 | 177 | 184 | 191 | 199 | 206 | 215 |
| less tax on EBIT | (25) | (26) | (27) | (28) | (29) | (30) | |||
| NOPAT | 152 | 158 | 164 | 171 | 177 | 184 | |||
| add depreciation | 79 | 83 | 93 | 103 | 107 | 112 | 116 | 121 | 126 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (34) | (70) | (109) | (151) |
| less working-capital build | — | (23) | (23) | (24) | (25) | (26) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 167 | 131 | 183 | — | 243 | 219 | 193 | 164 | 133 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 230 | 187 | 148 | 114 | 83 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,074, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 177 | 184 | 191 | 199 | 206 | 215 |
| Interest at 7.4% on debt | (79) | (79) | (79) | (79) | (79) | |
| Profit before tax | 104 | 111 | 119 | 127 | 135 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 89 | 96 | 102 | 109 | 116 |
| Dividends | (19) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 225 | 399 | 549 | 674 | 769 | 834 |
| Working capital | 565 | 588 | 611 | 635 | 661 | 687 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,735 | 1,627 | 1,549 | 1,503 | 1,491 | 1,516 |
| Debt | 1,074 | 1,074 | 1,074 | 1,074 | 1,074 | 1,074 |
| Equity | 978 | 1,068 | 1,163 | 1,266 | 1,375 | 1,491 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 174 | 184 | 194 | 205 | 216 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (34) | (70) | (109) | (151) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 174 | 150 | 124 | 96 | 65 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 174 | 150 | 124 | 96 | 65 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4% | 17.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹268 | (57.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.