Models
MMTC LIMITEDMMTCCommercial Services & Supplies
₹37per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹37implied FY26 P/E 12.4× · EV/EBITDA 19.0×
Against CMP ₹62.31−40.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies41.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹28₹55
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹50₹78
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,069 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,473 |
| Enterprise value | 5,542 |
| less net debt | 3 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,545 |
| ÷ 150.00 crore shares | ₹37 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 38 | 41 | 45 | 49 | 55 |
| 10.50% | 35 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 48 |
| 11.00% | 32 | 35 | 37 | 40 | 43 |
| 11.50% | 30 | 32 | 34 | 36 | 39 |
| 12.00% | 28 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 36 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹62.31; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 27 · 37 · 49 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.31 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,528 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 |
| growth % | (70.1) | (99.8) | (49.6) | 26.8 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,309 | (118) | (153) | 292 | 371 | 471 | 598 | 760 | 965 |
| margin % | 37.1 | (2208.2) | (5687.4) | 8564.5 | 8564.5 | 8564.5 | 8564.5 | 8564.5 | 8564.5 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (7) | (8) | (11) | (13) | (17) |
| EBIT | 1,304 | (122) | (157) | 287 | 364 | 463 | 588 | 746 | 948 |
| less tax on EBIT | (156) | (197) | (251) | (319) | (405) | (514) | |||
| NOPAT | 131 | 167 | 212 | 269 | 342 | 434 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 17 |
| less capex | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (3) | (6) | (12) | (20) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 754 | (353) | (363) | — | 173 | 218 | 273 | 343 | 431 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 164 | 186 | 211 | 238 | 269 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 287 | 364 | 463 | 588 | 746 | 948 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 364 | 463 | 588 | 746 | 948 | |
| Profit after tax | 387 | 167 | 212 | 269 | 342 | 434 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 176 | 394 | 667 | 1,010 | 1,441 |
| Working capital | (214) | (214) | (214) | (214) | (214) | (214) |
| Net block and other assets | 3,007 | 3,001 | 2,995 | 2,991 | 2,990 | 2,993 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,121 | 2,288 | 2,500 | 2,769 | 3,111 | 3,545 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 173 | 220 | 280 | 355 | 451 | |
| Investing (capex) | (0) | (3) | (6) | (12) | (20) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 173 | 218 | 273 | 343 | 431 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 173 | 218 | 273 | 343 | 431 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 27% | 8564.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹37 | (40.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.