Models
MODERN MALLEABLES LTD.BSE 517336Industrial Products
₹33per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹33implied FY26 P/E 15.6× · EV/EBITDA 14.4×
Against CMP ₹41.51−21.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹24₹49
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2₹86
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 71 |
| PV of terminal value | 320 |
| Enterprise value | 391 |
| less net debt | (11) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 380 |
| ÷ 11.65 crore shares | ₹33 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 34 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 49 |
| 10.50% | 31 | 33 | 36 | 39 | 43 |
| 11.00% | 28 | 30 | 33 | 35 | 38 |
| 11.50% | 26 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 |
| 12.00% | 24 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 31 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹41.51; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 23 · 32 · 42 |
| Draws below the CMP | 89% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.00 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 52 | 68 | 52 | 151 | 196 | 255 | 331 | 431 | 560 |
| growth % | — | 29.4 | (22.7) | 188.4 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 11 | 16 | 1 | 27 | 35 | 46 | 60 | 78 | 101 |
| margin % | 20.9 | 23.4 | 1.6 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) |
| EBIT | 10 | 15 | 0 | 26 | 34 | 44 | 58 | 75 | 97 |
| less tax on EBIT | (7) | (9) | (11) | (14) | (19) | (24) | |||
| NOPAT | 20 | 26 | 33 | 43 | 56 | 73 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| less capex | — | 0 | (2) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) |
| less working-capital build | — | (15) | (19) | (25) | (32) | (42) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 6 | (12) | — | 10 | 14 | 18 | 24 | 31 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 19 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 12, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 26 | 34 | 44 | 58 | 75 | 97 |
| Interest at 9.4% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 33 | 43 | 57 | 74 | 96 | |
| Profit after tax | 19 | 25 | 32 | 42 | 55 | 72 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 10 | 23 | 40 | 62 | 92 |
| Working capital | 49 | 63 | 82 | 107 | 139 | 180 |
| Net block and other assets | 176 | 176 | 177 | 178 | 178 | 179 |
| Debt | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Equity | 178 | 203 | 235 | 278 | 333 | 405 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 11 | 15 | 20 | 26 | 34 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 10 | 13 | 17 | 23 | 30 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 10 | 13 | 17 | 23 | 30 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 18% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹33 | (21.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.