Models
MOHIT PAPER MILLS LTD.BSE 530169Paper, Forest & Jute Products
₹-2per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(2)implied FY26 P/E (0.3)× · EV/EBITDA 3.1×
Against CMP ₹26.56−106.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3157%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(10)₹16
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹24₹39
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 31 |
| PV of terminal value | 41 |
| Enterprise value | 72 |
| less net debt | (74) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (2) |
| ÷ 1.40 crore shares | ₹(2) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (0) | 3 | 6 | 10 | 16 |
| 10.50% | (3) | (1) | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 11.00% | (6) | (4) | (2) | 1 | 4 |
| 11.50% | (8) | (7) | (5) | (2) | 0 |
| 12.00% | (10) | (9) | (7) | (5) | (3) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹26.56; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (38) · (2) · 29 |
| Draws below the CMP | 88% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 222 | 186 | 180 | 200 | 222 | 247 | 274 | 304 | 337 |
| growth % | 57.8 | (16.4) | (2.9) | 11.1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 12 | 12 | 18 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 32 | 35 | 39 |
| margin % | 5.4 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (6) | (9) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (14) |
| EBIT | 6 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 25 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (7) | |||
| NOPAT | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 18 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| less capex | (14) | (19) | (7) | (3) | (3) | (6) | (9) | (12) | (17) |
| less working-capital build | — | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (5) | (11) | 7 | — | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 74, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 15 | 17 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 25 |
| Interest at 8.3% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 11 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 19 | |
| Profit after tax | 7 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 17 |
| Working capital | 67 | 74 | 82 | 91 | 101 | 113 |
| Net block and other assets | 130 | 124 | 120 | 117 | 117 | 120 |
| Debt | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 |
| Equity | 58 | 65 | 74 | 84 | 96 | 109 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 16 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (6) | (9) | (12) | (17) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | (0) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | (0) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 11.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(2) | (106.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.