Models
MOIL LIMITEDMOILMinerals & Mining
₹95per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹95implied FY20 P/E 30.4× · EV/EBITDA 7.1×
Against CMP ₹245.50−61.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2564%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹78₹129
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹242₹405
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY21–FY25 free cash flow | 660 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,166 |
| Enterprise value | 1,826 |
| less net debt | 105 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,931 |
| ÷ 20.35 crore shares | ₹95 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 98 | 103 | 110 | 119 | 129 |
| 10.50% | 91 | 96 | 102 | 109 | 117 |
| 11.00% | 86 | 90 | 95 | 100 | 107 |
| 11.50% | 82 | 85 | 89 | 94 | 99 |
| 12.00% | 78 | 81 | 84 | 88 | 92 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹245.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 75 · 94 · 116 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,038 | 1,121 | 1,211 | 1,308 | 1,412 | 1,525 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 256 | 276 | 298 | 322 | 347 | 375 |
| margin % | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 |
| less depreciation | (96) | (104) | (113) | (122) | (131) | (142) |
| EBIT | 159 | 172 | 185 | 200 | 216 | 233 |
| less tax on EBIT | (43) | (46) | (50) | (54) | (59) | (63) |
| NOPAT | 116 | 125 | 135 | 146 | 158 | 170 |
| add depreciation | 96 | 104 | 113 | 122 | 131 | 142 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | (34) | (73) | (118) | (170) |
| less working-capital build | — | (22) | (23) | (25) | (27) | (29) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 208 | 190 | 169 | 143 | 112 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 197 | 163 | 130 | 99 | 70 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 159 | 172 | 185 | 200 | 216 | 233 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 172 | 185 | 200 | 216 | 233 | |
| Profit after tax | 248 | 125 | 135 | 146 | 158 | 170 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 105 | 313 | 503 | 672 | 816 | 928 |
| Working capital | 271 | 293 | 316 | 341 | 369 | 398 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,922 | 2,818 | 2,739 | 2,690 | 2,677 | 2,705 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,763 | 2,888 | 3,023 | 3,169 | 3,327 | 3,497 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 208 | 224 | 242 | 262 | 282 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (34) | (73) | (118) | (170) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 208 | 190 | 169 | 143 | 112 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 208 | 190 | 169 | 143 | 112 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY20 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 24.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹95 | (61.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.