Models
MOLD-TEK PACKAGING LTDMOLDTKPACIndustrial Products
₹182per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹182implied FY22 P/E 8.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.4×
Against CMP ₹672.50−72.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2791%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹130₹287
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹465₹847
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY23–FY27 free cash flow | 57 |
| PV of terminal value | 589 |
| Enterprise value | 646 |
| less net debt | (40) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 606 |
| ÷ 3.32 crore shares | ₹182 |
91% of the value sits after FY27. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 190 | 207 | 228 | 254 | 287 |
| 10.50% | 171 | 186 | 203 | 224 | 249 |
| 11.00% | 156 | 168 | 182 | 199 | 220 |
| 11.50% | 142 | 153 | 165 | 179 | 196 |
| 12.00% | 130 | 139 | 150 | 162 | 176 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹672.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1 · 180 · 314 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 406 | 438 | 479 | 631 | 821 | 1,067 | 1,387 | 1,804 | 2,345 |
| growth % | 13.4 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 31.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 70 | 77 | 94 | 121 | 157 | 204 | 265 | 344 | 448 |
| margin % | 17.3 | 17.5 | 19.7 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 |
| less depreciation | (16) | (19) | (22) | (26) | (34) | (45) | (58) | (76) | (98) |
| EBIT | 54 | 58 | 73 | 94 | 122 | 159 | 207 | 269 | 349 |
| less tax on EBIT | (25) | (32) | (42) | (55) | (71) | (92) | |||
| NOPAT | 69 | 90 | 117 | 152 | 198 | 257 | |||
| add depreciation | 16 | 19 | 22 | 26 | 34 | 45 | 58 | 76 | 98 |
| less capex | — | — | (59) | (52) | (68) | (80) | (93) | (106) | (118) |
| less working-capital build | — | (63) | (82) | (107) | (139) | (181) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | — | 9 | — | (7) | (0) | 11 | 29 | 57 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (7) | (0) | 8 | 20 | 35 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 44, dividends at 17.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 94 | 122 | 159 | 207 | 269 | 349 |
| Interest at 13.1% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 117 | 153 | 201 | 263 | 344 | |
| Profit after tax | 64 | 86 | 113 | 148 | 194 | 253 |
| Dividends | (11) | (15) | (20) | (26) | (34) | (45) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | (22) | (47) | (67) | (76) | (69) |
| Working capital | 211 | 274 | 356 | 463 | 602 | 783 |
| Net block and other assets | 359 | 393 | 428 | 462 | 492 | 512 |
| Debt | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 |
| Equity | 457 | 528 | 620 | 742 | 901 | 1,109 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 57 | 75 | 99 | 130 | 171 | |
| Investing (capex) | (68) | (80) | (93) | (106) | (118) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (15) | (20) | (26) | (34) | (45) | |
| Net change in cash | (26) | (25) | (20) | (10) | 7 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (11) | (5) | 7 | 25 | 52 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY22 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 19.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹182 | (72.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.