Models
MONARCH NETWORTH CAP LTDMONARCHCapital Markets
₹628per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹628implied FY26 P/E 27.5× · EV/EBITDA 18.4×
Against CMP ₹375.60+67.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies0.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹490₹902
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹235₹407
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,054 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,680 |
| Enterprise value | 4,734 |
| less net debt | 246 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,980 |
| ÷ 7.93 crore shares | ₹628 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 648 | 694 | 750 | 817 | 902 |
| 10.50% | 599 | 638 | 683 | 738 | 804 |
| 11.00% | 558 | 590 | 628 | 672 | 726 |
| 11.50% | 522 | 549 | 581 | 618 | 662 |
| 12.00% | 490 | 514 | 541 | 572 | 609 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹375.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 513 · 626 · 763 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 156 | 260 | 327 | 372 | 424 | 484 | 551 | 629 | 717 |
| growth % | 7.9 | 66.5 | 25.9 | 13.9 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| EBITDA | 59 | 160 | 217 | 258 | 294 | 335 | 382 | 436 | 497 |
| margin % | 37.7 | 61.4 | 66.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (2) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (12) | (13) | (15) |
| EBIT | 58 | 158 | 209 | 250 | 285 | 325 | 371 | 422 | 482 |
| less tax on EBIT | (65) | (74) | (84) | (96) | (109) | (124) | |||
| NOPAT | 186 | 212 | 241 | 275 | 313 | 357 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| less capex | (4) | (6) | (16) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (18) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (25) | (151) | 14 | — | 211 | 240 | 274 | 311 | 354 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 200 | 205 | 211 | 216 | 222 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 27, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 250 | 285 | 325 | 371 | 422 | 482 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 283 | 323 | 368 | 420 | 479 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 210 | 240 | 273 | 312 | 356 |
| Dividends | (8) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 273 | 483 | 721 | 993 | 1,303 | 1,656 |
| Working capital | (290) | (290) | (290) | (290) | (290) | (290) |
| Net block and other assets | 1,589 | 1,590 | 1,591 | 1,592 | 1,594 | 1,597 |
| Debt | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Equity | 971 | 1,181 | 1,421 | 1,694 | 2,006 | 2,362 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 219 | 250 | 285 | 325 | 371 | |
| Investing (capex) | (9) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (18) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 210 | 239 | 272 | 310 | 353 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 210 | 239 | 272 | 310 | 353 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14% | 69.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹628 | 67.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.