MOSCHIP TECHNOLOGIES LTD — valuation model

MOSCHIP TECHNOLOGIES LTDMOSCHIPIT - Hardware

₹33per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹33implied FY26 P/E 23.5× · EV/EBITDA 12.0×

Against CMP ₹210.35−84.3%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹25₹49

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹147₹288

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	109
PV of terminal value	535
Enterprise value	643
less net debt	(3)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	640
÷ 19.43 crore shares	₹33

83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	34	37	40	44	49
10.50%	31	34	36	39	43
11.00%	29	31	33	36	39
11.50%	27	28	30	32	35
12.00%	25	26	28	30	32

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹210.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	21 · 32 · 45
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.91
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.33
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.13

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	198	294	467	585	734	922	1,157	1,452	1,822
growth %	34.3	48.2	58.8	25.3	25.5	25.5	25.5	25.5	25.5
EBITDA	26	34	56	54	68	85	106	134	168
margin %	13.3	11.7	12.0	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2
less depreciation	(17)	(20)	(19)	(19)	(23)	(29)	(37)	(46)	(58)
EBIT	9	14	37	35	44	55	69	87	109
less tax on EBIT				(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(2)
NOPAT				35	43	54	68	86	108
add depreciation	17	20	19	19	23	29	37	46	58
less capex	(6)	(2)	(14)	(28)	(35)	(42)	(50)	(59)	(70)
less working-capital build				—	(18)	(22)	(28)	(35)	(44)
Free cash flow to firm	10	29	86	—	14	19	27	38	51
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					13	17	21	26	32

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 36, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	35	44	55	69	87	109
Interest at 13.4% on debt		(5)	(5)	(5)	(5)	(5)
Profit before tax		39	50	65	82	104
Profit after tax	35	39	50	64	81	103
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	33	42	57	79	112	159
Working capital	70	88	110	139	174	218
Net block and other assets	640	651	664	677	690	701
Debt	36	36	36	36	36	36
Equity	409	447	497	560	641	744
Balance check	0	(0)	(0)	0	0	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		44	57	72	92	117
Investing (capex)		(35)	(42)	(50)	(59)	(70)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		9	15	22	33	47
Free cash flow to equity		9	15	22	33	47

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	25.5%	9.2%	11.00%	5%	₹33	(84.3)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.