Models
MOTHERSON SUMI WRNG IND LMSUMIAuto Components
₹16per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹16implied FY26 P/E 16.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.1×
Against CMP ₹36.31−56.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹12₹23
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹36₹54
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,274 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,457 |
| Enterprise value | 10,731 |
| less net debt | (167) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 10,564 |
| ÷ 663.17 crore shares | ₹16 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 16 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 23 |
| 10.50% | 15 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 21 |
| 11.00% | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 19 |
| 11.50% | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 12.00% | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹36.31; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 11 · 16 · 21 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,057 | 8,328 | 9,320 | 11,478 | 14,117 | 17,364 | 21,358 | 26,271 | 32,313 |
| growth % | 25.2 | 18.0 | 11.9 | 23.1 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 |
| EBITDA | 781 | 1,013 | 997 | 1,060 | 1,299 | 1,598 | 1,965 | 2,417 | 2,973 |
| margin % | 11.1 | 12.2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| less depreciation | (124) | (147) | (179) | (216) | (268) | (330) | (406) | (499) | (614) |
| EBIT | 658 | 866 | 818 | 844 | 1,031 | 1,268 | 1,559 | 1,918 | 2,359 |
| less tax on EBIT | (202) | (246) | (303) | (373) | (458) | (564) | |||
| NOPAT | 642 | 784 | 965 | 1,187 | 1,459 | 1,795 | |||
| add depreciation | 124 | 147 | 179 | 216 | 268 | 330 | 406 | 499 | 614 |
| less capex | (199) | (111) | (172) | (201) | (254) | (333) | (436) | (567) | (737) |
| less working-capital build | — | (375) | (461) | (567) | (698) | (858) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 25 | 680 | 193 | — | 424 | 500 | 589 | 694 | 814 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 402 | 428 | 454 | 481 | 509 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 233, dividends at 60% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 844 | 1,031 | 1,268 | 1,559 | 1,918 | 2,359 |
| Interest at 10.5% on debt | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,006 | 1,243 | 1,535 | 1,893 | 2,334 | |
| Profit after tax | 625 | 766 | 946 | 1,168 | 1,441 | 1,776 |
| Dividends | (375) | (459) | (568) | (701) | (864) | (1,066) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 66 | 12 | (74) | (204) | (394) | (664) |
| Working capital | 1,632 | 2,007 | 2,468 | 3,035 | 3,733 | 4,591 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,047 | 3,033 | 3,037 | 3,067 | 3,135 | 3,258 |
| Debt | 233 | 233 | 233 | 233 | 233 | 233 |
| Equity | 2,162 | 2,468 | 2,846 | 3,314 | 3,890 | 4,600 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 659 | 815 | 1,007 | 1,242 | 1,532 | |
| Investing (capex) | (254) | (333) | (436) | (567) | (737) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (459) | (568) | (701) | (864) | (1,066) | |
| Net change in cash | (54) | (86) | (130) | (190) | (270) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 405 | 481 | 571 | 675 | 796 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 23% | 9.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹16 | (56.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.