Models
MOTILAL OSWAL FIN LTDMOTILALOFSCapital Markets
₹1,178per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,178implied FY26 P/E 35.8× · EV/EBITDA 17.0×
Against CMP ₹1,026.50+14.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies7.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹929₹1,674
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹615₹1,097
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 15,233 |
| PV of terminal value | 50,526 |
| Enterprise value | 65,759 |
| less net debt | 5,161 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 70,920 |
| ÷ 60.21 crore shares | ₹1,178 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,214 | 1,298 | 1,398 | 1,521 | 1,674 |
| 10.50% | 1,126 | 1,196 | 1,278 | 1,376 | 1,497 |
| 11.00% | 1,051 | 1,110 | 1,178 | 1,258 | 1,355 |
| 11.50% | 986 | 1,036 | 1,093 | 1,160 | 1,239 |
| 12.00% | 929 | 972 | 1,021 | 1,077 | 1,143 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,026.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 980 · 1,173 · 1,407 |
| Draws below the CMP | 17% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.57 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,177 | 7,068 | 8,417 | 9,374 | 10,452 | 11,654 | 12,994 | 14,488 | 16,155 |
| growth % | (2.8) | 69.2 | 19.1 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,876 | 4,066 | 4,623 | 3,870 | 4,317 | 4,813 | 5,367 | 5,984 | 6,672 |
| margin % | 44.9 | 57.5 | 54.9 | 41.3 | 41.3 | 41.3 | 41.3 | 41.3 | 41.3 |
| less depreciation | (58) | (83) | (99) | (111) | (125) | (140) | (156) | (174) | (194) |
| EBIT | 1,818 | 3,983 | 4,525 | 3,759 | 4,191 | 4,673 | 5,211 | 5,810 | 6,478 |
| less tax on EBIT | (913) | (1,018) | (1,136) | (1,266) | (1,412) | (1,574) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,846 | 3,173 | 3,538 | 3,944 | 4,398 | 4,904 | |||
| add depreciation | 58 | 83 | 99 | 111 | 125 | 140 | 156 | 174 | 194 |
| less capex | (168) | 0 | (101) | (72) | (84) | (112) | (146) | (185) | (233) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (3,225) | (349) | 1,114 | — | 3,215 | 3,566 | 3,955 | 4,386 | 4,865 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 3,051 | 3,049 | 3,047 | 3,044 | 3,042 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 19.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3,759 | 4,191 | 4,673 | 5,211 | 5,810 | 6,478 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 4,191 | 4,673 | 5,211 | 5,810 | 6,478 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,869 | 3,173 | 3,538 | 3,944 | 4,398 | 4,904 |
| Dividends | (361) | (612) | (683) | (761) | (849) | (946) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5,161 | 7,763 | 10,646 | 13,840 | 17,378 | 21,296 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 38,306 | 38,265 | 38,237 | 38,226 | 38,238 | 38,277 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 12,952 | 15,513 | 18,367 | 21,551 | 25,100 | 29,057 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,298 | 3,677 | 4,100 | 4,572 | 5,098 | |
| Investing (capex) | (84) | (112) | (146) | (185) | (233) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (612) | (683) | (761) | (849) | (946) | |
| Net change in cash | 2,602 | 2,883 | 3,194 | 3,538 | 3,919 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 3,215 | 3,566 | 3,955 | 4,386 | 4,865 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 41.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,178 | 14.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.