Models
MPS LIMITEDMPSLTDPrinting & Publication
₹1,673per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,673implied FY26 P/E 15.1× · EV/EBITDA 11.6×
Against CMP ₹2,601.00−35.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies18.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,313₹2,391
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,336₹2,979
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 753 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,073 |
| Enterprise value | 2,827 |
| less net debt | 36 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,863 |
| ÷ 1.71 crore shares | ₹1,673 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,727 | 1,847 | 1,992 | 2,169 | 2,391 |
| 10.50% | 1,599 | 1,700 | 1,818 | 1,960 | 2,134 |
| 11.00% | 1,490 | 1,575 | 1,673 | 1,790 | 1,929 |
| 11.50% | 1,396 | 1,468 | 1,551 | 1,647 | 1,762 |
| 12.00% | 1,313 | 1,375 | 1,445 | 1,527 | 1,622 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,601.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,406 · 1,664 · 1,981 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.27 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 501 | 545 | 727 | 768 | 811 | 855 | 902 | 952 | 1,004 |
| growth % | 11.6 | 8.8 | 33.3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 157 | 170 | 217 | 243 | 257 | 271 | 286 | 302 | 318 |
| margin % | 31.3 | 31.2 | 29.8 | 31.7 | 31.7 | 31.7 | 31.7 | 31.7 | 31.7 |
| less depreciation | (19) | (20) | (27) | (28) | (29) | (31) | (32) | (34) | (36) |
| EBIT | 137 | 150 | 189 | 216 | 228 | 240 | 254 | 267 | 282 |
| less tax on EBIT | (53) | (56) | (59) | (62) | (66) | (69) | |||
| NOPAT | 163 | 172 | 181 | 191 | 202 | 213 | |||
| add depreciation | 19 | 20 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 34 | 36 |
| less capex | (4) | (4) | (6) | (8) | (8) | (16) | (24) | (33) | (43) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 109 | 114 | 95 | — | 188 | 191 | 194 | 197 | 200 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 179 | 164 | 150 | 137 | 125 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 40, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 216 | 228 | 240 | 254 | 267 | 282 |
| Interest at 5% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 226 | 238 | 252 | 265 | 280 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 170 | 180 | 190 | 200 | 212 |
| Dividends | (87) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 77 | 263 | 453 | 646 | 841 | 1,039 |
| Working capital | 91 | 96 | 101 | 107 | 112 | 119 |
| Net block and other assets | 775 | 754 | 738 | 730 | 729 | 736 |
| Debt | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Equity | 596 | 767 | 947 | 1,137 | 1,337 | 1,549 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 195 | 205 | 217 | 229 | 242 | |
| Investing (capex) | (8) | (16) | (24) | (33) | (43) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 187 | 190 | 193 | 196 | 198 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 187 | 190 | 193 | 196 | 198 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 31.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,673 | (35.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.