Models
MRF LTDMRFAuto Components
₹74,204per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹74,204implied FY26 P/E 13.0× · EV/EBITDA 6.9×
Against CMP ₹1,28,760.00−42.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹57,098₹1,08,277
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,22,000₹1,63,600
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 9,133 |
| PV of terminal value | 24,392 |
| Enterprise value | 33,524 |
| less net debt | (2,062) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 31,462 |
| ÷ 0.42 crore shares | ₹74,204 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 76,749 | 82,481 | 89,360 | 97,767 | 1,08,277 |
| 10.50% | 70,699 | 75,462 | 81,092 | 87,847 | 96,103 |
| 11.00% | 65,516 | 69,525 | 74,204 | 79,732 | 86,366 |
| 11.50% | 61,025 | 64,439 | 68,377 | 72,972 | 78,402 |
| 12.00% | 57,098 | 60,032 | 63,384 | 67,253 | 71,766 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,28,760.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 53,246 · 73,543 · 96,031 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23,009 | 25,169 | 28,153 | 31,149 | 34,420 | 38,034 | 42,027 | 46,440 | 51,316 |
| growth % | 19.1 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| EBITDA | 2,389 | 4,254 | 4,084 | 4,837 | 5,335 | 5,895 | 6,514 | 7,198 | 7,954 |
| margin % | 10.4 | 16.9 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| less depreciation | (1,253) | (1,430) | (1,654) | (1,754) | (1,928) | (2,130) | (2,354) | (2,601) | (2,874) |
| EBIT | 1,136 | 2,824 | 2,431 | 3,084 | 3,408 | 3,765 | 4,161 | 4,598 | 5,080 |
| less tax on EBIT | (762) | (842) | (930) | (1,028) | (1,136) | (1,255) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,322 | 2,566 | 2,835 | 3,133 | 3,462 | 3,825 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,253 | 1,430 | 1,654 | 1,754 | 1,928 | 2,130 | 2,354 | 2,601 | 2,874 |
| less capex | (3,291) | (2,155) | (1,308) | (1,434) | (1,583) | (1,951) | (2,379) | (2,875) | (3,448) |
| less working-capital build | — | (605) | (669) | (739) | (816) | (902) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (536) | 1,145 | 560 | — | 2,305 | 2,345 | 2,369 | 2,372 | 2,349 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,188 | 2,006 | 1,825 | 1,646 | 1,468 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,367, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3,084 | 3,408 | 3,765 | 4,161 | 4,598 | 5,080 |
| Interest at 13.9% on debt | (329) | (329) | (329) | (329) | (329) | |
| Profit before tax | 3,079 | 3,436 | 3,832 | 4,269 | 4,751 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 2,318 | 2,588 | 2,885 | 3,214 | 3,578 |
| Dividends | (100) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 305 | 2,362 | 4,460 | 6,581 | 8,705 | 10,806 |
| Working capital | 5,752 | 6,357 | 7,026 | 7,764 | 8,581 | 9,483 |
| Net block and other assets | 25,897 | 25,553 | 25,374 | 25,399 | 25,673 | 26,248 |
| Debt | 2,367 | 2,367 | 2,367 | 2,367 | 2,367 | 2,367 |
| Equity | 20,975 | 23,293 | 25,880 | 28,766 | 31,980 | 35,558 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,641 | 4,049 | 4,500 | 4,998 | 5,549 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,583) | (1,951) | (2,379) | (2,875) | (3,448) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 2,057 | 2,098 | 2,121 | 2,124 | 2,101 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,057 | 2,098 | 2,121 | 2,124 | 2,101 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10.5% | 15.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹74,204 | (42.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.