Models
MRPLMRPLPetroleum Products
₹87per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹87implied FY26 P/E 4.9× · EV/EBITDA 4.7×
Against CMP ₹175.40−50.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹53₹155
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹126₹212
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 9,015 |
| PV of terminal value | 20,000 |
| Enterprise value | 29,014 |
| less net debt | (13,769) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 15,245 |
| ÷ 175.26 crore shares | ₹87 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 92 | 104 | 117 | 134 | 155 |
| 10.50% | 80 | 90 | 101 | 114 | 130 |
| 11.00% | 70 | 78 | 87 | 98 | 111 |
| 11.50% | 61 | 68 | 75 | 84 | 95 |
| 12.00% | 53 | 59 | 65 | 73 | 82 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹175.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 62 · 87 · 117 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,24,736 | 1,05,223 | 1,09,277 | 1,05,155 | 1,00,949 | 96,911 | 93,035 | 89,313 | 85,741 |
| growth % | 44.9 | (15.6) | 3.9 | (3.8) | (4.0) | (4.0) | (4.0) | (4.0) | (4.0) |
| EBITDA | 6,499 | 7,687 | 2,293 | 6,235 | 5,956 | 5,718 | 5,489 | 5,269 | 5,059 |
| margin % | 5.2 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| less depreciation | (1,187) | (1,257) | (1,347) | (1,520) | (1,413) | (1,357) | (1,302) | (1,250) | (1,200) |
| EBIT | 5,312 | 6,430 | 946 | 4,716 | 4,543 | 4,361 | 4,187 | 4,019 | 3,858 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2,462) | (2,371) | (2,276) | (2,185) | (2,098) | (2,014) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,254 | 2,171 | 2,085 | 2,001 | 1,921 | 1,844 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,187 | 1,257 | 1,347 | 1,520 | 1,413 | 1,357 | 1,302 | 1,250 | 1,200 |
| less capex | (703) | (1,556) | (990) | (1,412) | (1,312) | (1,352) | (1,386) | (1,416) | (1,440) |
| less working-capital build | — | 379 | 363 | 349 | 335 | 322 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5,662 | 5,489 | 888 | — | 2,651 | 2,453 | 2,266 | 2,091 | 1,926 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,516 | 2,097 | 1,746 | 1,451 | 1,204 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 14,334, dividends at 36.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 4,716 | 4,543 | 4,361 | 4,187 | 4,019 | 3,858 |
| Interest at 6.7% on debt | (960) | (960) | (960) | (960) | (960) | |
| Profit before tax | 3,582 | 3,401 | 3,226 | 3,059 | 2,898 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,925 | 1,712 | 1,626 | 1,542 | 1,462 | 1,385 |
| Dividends | (701) | (623) | (592) | (561) | (532) | (504) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 564 | 2,133 | 3,535 | 4,781 | 5,881 | 6,843 |
| Working capital | 9,421 | 9,042 | 8,679 | 8,330 | 7,995 | 7,673 |
| Net block and other assets | 34,496 | 34,395 | 34,390 | 34,474 | 34,639 | 34,879 |
| Debt | 14,334 | 14,334 | 14,334 | 14,334 | 14,334 | 14,334 |
| Equity | 14,197 | 15,286 | 16,320 | 17,301 | 18,230 | 19,111 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,504 | 3,346 | 3,193 | 3,047 | 2,907 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,312) | (1,352) | (1,386) | (1,416) | (1,440) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (623) | (592) | (561) | (532) | (504) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,569 | 1,402 | 1,246 | 1,100 | 962 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,192 | 1,994 | 1,807 | 1,632 | 1,467 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -4% | 5.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹87 | (50.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.