Models
MSP STEEL & POWER LTD.MSPLIndustrial Products
₹-2per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(2)implied FY26 P/E (3.2)× · EV/EBITDA 2.4×
Against CMP ₹34.21−106.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3168%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(3)₹(1)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹26₹46
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 60 |
| PV of terminal value | 125 |
| Enterprise value | 184 |
| less net debt | (306) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (122) |
| ÷ 56.68 crore shares | ₹(2) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (2) | (2) | (2) | (1) | (1) |
| 10.50% | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (1) |
| 11.00% | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| 11.50% | (3) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| 12.00% | (3) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (2) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹34.21; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (3) · (2) · (1) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.96 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.25 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,550 | 2,874 | 2,905 | 2,843 | 2,786 | 2,730 | 2,676 | 2,622 | 2,570 |
| growth % | 9.0 | 12.7 | 1.1 | (2.1) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) |
| EBITDA | 63 | 125 | 134 | 76 | 75 | 74 | 72 | 71 | 69 |
| margin % | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| less depreciation | (54) | (55) | (54) | (55) | (53) | (52) | (51) | (50) | (49) |
| EBIT | 8 | 70 | 80 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (6) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |||
| NOPAT | 16 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | |||
| add depreciation | 54 | 55 | 54 | 55 | 53 | 52 | 51 | 50 | 49 |
| less capex | (54) | (46) | (32) | (59) | (59) | (59) | (59) | (59) | (59) |
| less working-capital build | — | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 27 | 125 | 157 | — | 18 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 12 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 17 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 8 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 311, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 21 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Interest at 16.6% on debt | (52) | (52) | (52) | (52) | (52) | |
| Profit before tax | (29) | (30) | (30) | (31) | (31) | |
| Profit after tax | 34 | (22) | (22) | (23) | (23) | (23) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | (16) | (38) | (62) | (87) | (114) |
| Working capital | 348 | 341 | 334 | 328 | 321 | 315 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,375 | 1,380 | 1,387 | 1,395 | 1,404 | 1,413 |
| Debt | 311 | 311 | 311 | 311 | 311 | 311 |
| Equity | 1,030 | 1,009 | 986 | 964 | 941 | 918 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 38 | 36 | 35 | 33 | 32 | |
| Investing (capex) | (59) | (59) | (59) | (59) | (59) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (21) | (22) | (24) | (25) | (27) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (21) | (22) | (24) | (25) | (27) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -2% | 2.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(2) | (106.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.