Models
MSTC LIMITEDMSTCLTDCommercial Services & Supplies
₹687per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹687implied FY26 P/E 20.6× · EV/EBITDA 19.7×
Against CMP ₹735.55−6.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies21.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹538₹982
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹362₹805
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 898 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,526 |
| Enterprise value | 4,424 |
| less net debt | 409 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,833 |
| ÷ 7.04 crore shares | ₹687 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 708 | 758 | 818 | 891 | 982 |
| 10.50% | 656 | 697 | 746 | 805 | 877 |
| 11.00% | 611 | 646 | 687 | 735 | 792 |
| 11.50% | 572 | 602 | 636 | 676 | 724 |
| 12.00% | 538 | 564 | 593 | 627 | 666 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹735.55; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 553 · 683 · 846 |
| Draws below the CMP | 67% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 721 | 751 | 311 | 370 | 440 | 523 | 623 | 741 | 882 |
| growth % | (17.7) | 4.1 | (58.6) | 18.9 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| EBITDA | 196 | 161 | 447 | 224 | 267 | 317 | 377 | 449 | 535 |
| margin % | 27.1 | 21.5 | 143.6 | 60.6 | 60.6 | 60.6 | 60.6 | 60.6 | 60.6 |
| less depreciation | (22) | (24) | (9) | (10) | (12) | (15) | (17) | (21) | (25) |
| EBIT | 174 | 137 | 438 | 214 | 254 | 303 | 360 | 428 | 510 |
| less tax on EBIT | (53) | (63) | (75) | (90) | (107) | (127) | |||
| NOPAT | 161 | 191 | 227 | 270 | 322 | 383 | |||
| add depreciation | 22 | 24 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 25 |
| less capex | (21) | (132) | (25) | (22) | (26) | (28) | (29) | (30) | (30) |
| less working-capital build | — | (19) | (23) | (27) | (32) | (38) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 865 | (444) | 236 | — | 158 | 191 | 232 | 280 | 340 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 150 | 163 | 178 | 195 | 212 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 145, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 214 | 254 | 303 | 360 | 428 | 510 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | |
| Profit before tax | 243 | 291 | 348 | 417 | 498 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 182 | 219 | 262 | 313 | 374 |
| Dividends | (54) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 554 | 703 | 885 | 1,108 | 1,380 | 1,710 |
| Working capital | 101 | 120 | 143 | 170 | 202 | 241 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,356 | 1,370 | 1,384 | 1,395 | 1,404 | 1,409 |
| Debt | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 |
| Equity | 904 | 1,086 | 1,305 | 1,566 | 1,879 | 2,254 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 175 | 210 | 252 | 302 | 360 | |
| Investing (capex) | (26) | (28) | (29) | (30) | (30) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 149 | 182 | 223 | 272 | 331 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 149 | 182 | 223 | 272 | 331 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19% | 60.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹687 | (6.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.