Models
MUKAND LTD.MUKANDLTDIndustrial Products
₹-8per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(8)implied FY26 P/E (0.2)× · EV/EBITDA 9.1×
Against CMP ₹139.70−105.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(32)₹40
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹114₹154
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 378 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,186 |
| Enterprise value | 1,564 |
| less net debt | (1,681) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (117) |
| ÷ 14.45 crore shares | ₹(8) |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (5) | 4 | 13 | 25 | 40 |
| 10.50% | (13) | (6) | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 11.00% | (21) | (15) | (8) | (0) | 9 |
| 11.50% | (27) | (22) | (16) | (10) | (2) |
| 12.00% | (32) | (28) | (23) | (18) | (12) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹139.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (31) · (8) · 18 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,568 | 5,175 | 4,890 | 4,890 | 4,890 | 4,890 | 4,890 | 4,890 | 4,890 |
| growth % | 20.1 | (7.1) | (5.5) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBITDA | (177) | 292 | 284 | 171 | 171 | 171 | 171 | 171 | 171 |
| margin % | (3.2) | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| less depreciation | (52) | (50) | (51) | (62) | (64) | (64) | (64) | (64) | (64) |
| EBIT | (229) | 242 | 234 | 109 | 108 | 108 | 108 | 108 | 108 |
| less tax on EBIT | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | |||
| NOPAT | 128 | 127 | 127 | 127 | 127 | 127 | |||
| add depreciation | 52 | 50 | 51 | 62 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 |
| less capex | (61) | (48) | (126) | (108) | (108) | (100) | (92) | (84) | (76) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 45 | (38) | 54 | — | 83 | 91 | 99 | 106 | 114 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 79 | 78 | 76 | 74 | 71 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,697, dividends at 4.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 109 | 108 | 108 | 108 | 108 | 108 |
| Interest at 9.2% on debt | (156) | (156) | (156) | (156) | (156) | |
| Profit before tax | (49) | (49) | (49) | (49) | (49) | |
| Profit after tax | 604 | (57) | (57) | (57) | (57) | (57) |
| Dividends | (29) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 16 | (86) | (179) | (265) | (342) | (412) |
| Working capital | 2,264 | 2,264 | 2,264 | 2,264 | 2,264 | 2,264 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,797 | 1,841 | 1,877 | 1,906 | 1,926 | 1,939 |
| Debt | 1,697 | 1,697 | 1,697 | 1,697 | 1,697 | 1,697 |
| Equity | 1,522 | 1,465 | 1,408 | 1,351 | 1,293 | 1,236 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |
| Investing (capex) | (108) | (100) | (92) | (84) | (76) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (101) | (93) | (86) | (78) | (70) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (101) | (93) | (86) | (78) | (70) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0% | 3.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(8) | (105.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.