Models
MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGEMCXCapital Markets
₹1,321per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,321implied FY26 P/E 11.5× · EV/EBITDA 20.0×
Against CMP ₹3,276.00−59.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31143%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹792₹2,392
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,505₹3,480
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (14,026) |
| PV of terminal value | 46,891 |
| Enterprise value | 32,865 |
| less net debt | 820 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 33,685 |
| ÷ 25.50 crore shares | ₹1,321 |
143% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,384 | 1,567 | 1,787 | 2,056 | 2,392 |
| 10.50% | 1,200 | 1,352 | 1,532 | 1,748 | 2,012 |
| 11.00% | 1,043 | 1,171 | 1,321 | 1,498 | 1,710 |
| 11.50% | 909 | 1,018 | 1,144 | 1,291 | 1,464 |
| 12.00% | 792 | 886 | 993 | 1,117 | 1,261 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,276.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 799 · 1,307 · 2,004 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 514 | 684 | 1,113 | 2,302 | 2,993 | 3,890 | 5,057 | 6,575 | 8,547 |
| growth % | 40.0 | 33.1 | 62.8 | 106.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 150 | 64 | 667 | 1,642 | 2,134 | 2,774 | 3,606 | 4,688 | 6,094 |
| margin % | 29.2 | 9.4 | 60.0 | 71.3 | 71.3 | 71.3 | 71.3 | 71.3 | 71.3 |
| less depreciation | (22) | (36) | (64) | (78) | (102) | (132) | (172) | (224) | (291) |
| EBIT | 128 | 28 | 604 | 1,564 | 2,032 | 2,642 | 3,434 | 4,464 | 5,804 |
| less tax on EBIT | (331) | (431) | (560) | (728) | (946) | (1,230) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,232 | 1,601 | 2,082 | 2,706 | 3,518 | 4,573 | |||
| add depreciation | 22 | 36 | 64 | 78 | 102 | 132 | 172 | 224 | 291 |
| less capex | (71) | (143) | (96) | (6,810) | (8,852) | (8,670) | (7,583) | (5,063) | (349) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 70 | 378 | 854 | — | (7,149) | (6,457) | (4,705) | (1,322) | 4,515 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (6,786) | (5,521) | (3,625) | (917) | 2,823 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 11.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,564 | 2,032 | 2,642 | 3,434 | 4,464 | 5,804 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 2,032 | 2,642 | 3,434 | 4,464 | 5,804 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,332 | 1,601 | 2,082 | 2,706 | 3,518 | 4,573 |
| Dividends | (153) | (184) | (239) | (311) | (405) | (526) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 820 | (6,514) | (13,210) | (18,226) | (19,952) | (15,963) |
| Working capital | (129) | (129) | (129) | (129) | (129) | (129) |
| Net block and other assets | 6,810 | 15,560 | 24,098 | 31,509 | 36,349 | 36,407 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,848 | 4,265 | 6,107 | 8,502 | 11,615 | 15,663 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,703 | 2,214 | 2,878 | 3,741 | 4,864 | |
| Investing (capex) | (8,852) | (8,670) | (7,583) | (5,063) | (349) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (184) | (239) | (311) | (405) | (526) | |
| Net change in cash | (7,333) | (6,696) | (5,016) | (1,726) | 3,989 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (7,149) | (6,457) | (4,705) | (1,322) | 4,515 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 71.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,321 | (59.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.