Models
MURUDESHWAR CERAMICS LTDMURUDCERAConsumer Durables
₹-18per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(18)implied FY26 P/E (11.2)× · EV/EBITDA 0.9×
Against CMP ₹29.74−161.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31210%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(21)₹(12)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹25₹48
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (32) |
| PV of terminal value | 61 |
| Enterprise value | 29 |
| less net debt | (139) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (110) |
| ÷ 6.05 crore shares | ₹(18) |
210% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (18) | (17) | (16) | (14) | (12) |
| 10.50% | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (14) |
| 11.00% | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) |
| 11.50% | (20) | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) |
| 12.00% | (21) | (21) | (20) | (19) | (18) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹29.74; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (24) · (18) · (13) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.94 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.26 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 172 | 186 | 203 | 205 | 209 | 212 | 215 | 218 | 221 |
| growth % | 40.3 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| EBITDA | 31 | 30 | 35 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 34 |
| margin % | 17.9 | 16.1 | 17.1 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (12) | (14) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (16) | (16) | (16) |
| EBIT | 20 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |||
| NOPAT | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | |||
| add depreciation | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| less capex | (82) | (10) | (29) | (42) | (43) | (38) | (32) | (26) | (19) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (40) | 21 | (1) | — | (19) | (13) | (7) | (1) | 6 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (18) | (11) | (5) | (0) | 4 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 140, dividends at 28% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| Interest at 10.1% on debt | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | |
| Profit before tax | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | |
| Profit after tax | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Dividends | (3) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | (27) | (50) | (67) | (77) | (81) |
| Working capital | 133 | 135 | 138 | 140 | 142 | 144 |
| Net block and other assets | 481 | 509 | 531 | 547 | 557 | 560 |
| Debt | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 |
| Equity | 380 | 381 | 383 | 384 | 385 | 387 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | |
| Investing (capex) | (43) | (38) | (32) | (26) | (19) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | (29) | (23) | (17) | (10) | (4) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (28) | (22) | (16) | (10) | (3) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1.5% | 15.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(18) | (161.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.