Models
NAHAR INDS ENT LTDNAHARINDUSTextiles & Apparels
₹-55per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(55)implied FY26 P/E (3.3)× · EV/EBITDA 7.1×
Against CMP ₹133.86−141.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3151%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(70)₹(26)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹83₹154
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 209 |
| PV of terminal value | 214 |
| Enterprise value | 422 |
| less net debt | (661) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (239) |
| ÷ 4.32 crore shares | ₹(55) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (53) | (48) | (42) | (35) | (26) |
| 10.50% | (58) | (54) | (49) | (43) | (36) |
| 11.00% | (63) | (59) | (55) | (50) | (45) |
| 11.50% | (67) | (64) | (60) | (56) | (52) |
| 12.00% | (70) | (68) | (65) | (62) | (58) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹133.86; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (69) · (55) · (40) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,774 | 1,472 | 1,530 | 1,408 | 1,338 | 1,271 | 1,208 | 1,147 | 1,090 |
| growth % | (11.6) | (17.0) | 4.0 | (7.9) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 144 | 55 | 70 | 60 | 56 | 53 | 51 | 48 | 46 |
| margin % | 8.1 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| less depreciation | (48) | (46) | (48) | (50) | (48) | (46) | (43) | (41) | (39) |
| EBIT | 96 | 9 | 22 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| NOPAT | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | |||
| add depreciation | 48 | 46 | 48 | 50 | 48 | 46 | 43 | 41 | 39 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | (172) | 0 | 0 | (14) | (26) | (37) | (47) |
| less working-capital build | — | 29 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 23 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 504 | (72) | (95) | — | 83 | 65 | 49 | 34 | 21 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 79 | 56 | 38 | 24 | 13 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 682, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Interest at 6.6% on debt | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | |
| Profit before tax | (37) | (37) | (38) | (38) | (38) | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | (28) | (29) | (29) | (29) | (30) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 21 | 69 | 100 | 114 | 114 | 100 |
| Working capital | 575 | 546 | 519 | 493 | 468 | 445 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,304 | 1,256 | 1,224 | 1,207 | 1,203 | 1,211 |
| Debt | 682 | 682 | 682 | 682 | 682 | 682 |
| Equity | 1,043 | 1,015 | 986 | 957 | 928 | 898 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 49 | 44 | 40 | 37 | 33 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (14) | (26) | (37) | (47) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 49 | 31 | 14 | (1) | (14) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 49 | 31 | 14 | (1) | (14) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 4.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(55) | (141.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.