Models
NAHAR POLY FILMS LIMITEDNAHARPOLYIndustrial Products
₹311per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹311implied FY26 P/E 10.6× · EV/EBITDA 7.9×
Against CMP ₹233.00+33.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(4.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹238₹457
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹200₹339
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 237 |
| PV of terminal value | 607 |
| Enterprise value | 844 |
| less net debt | (79) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 765 |
| ÷ 2.46 crore shares | ₹311 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 322 | 347 | 376 | 412 | 457 |
| 10.50% | 296 | 316 | 341 | 370 | 405 |
| 11.00% | 274 | 291 | 311 | 335 | 363 |
| 11.50% | 254 | 269 | 286 | 306 | 329 |
| 12.00% | 238 | 250 | 265 | 281 | 301 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹233.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 243 · 308 · 386 |
| Draws below the CMP | 7% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.15 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 723 | 600 | 666 | 704 | 743 | 784 | 827 | 872 | 920 |
| growth % | 47.9 | (17.0) | 11.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 82 | 21 | 76 | 107 | 113 | 119 | 126 | 133 | 140 |
| margin % | 11.3 | 3.6 | 11.4 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 |
| less depreciation | (32) | (32) | (33) | (32) | (34) | (36) | (38) | (40) | (42) |
| EBIT | 49 | (11) | 44 | 75 | 79 | 83 | 88 | 92 | 98 |
| less tax on EBIT | (19) | (20) | (21) | (23) | (24) | (25) | |||
| NOPAT | 55 | 58 | 62 | 65 | 69 | 72 | |||
| add depreciation | 32 | 32 | 33 | 32 | 34 | 36 | 38 | 40 | 42 |
| less capex | (8) | (0) | (5) | (25) | (26) | (31) | (37) | (44) | (51) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 102 | 16 | 51 | — | 62 | 62 | 61 | 60 | 58 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 59 | 53 | 47 | 42 | 37 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 79, dividends at 3.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 75 | 79 | 83 | 88 | 92 | 98 |
| Interest at 9% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 72 | 76 | 81 | 85 | 90 | |
| Profit after tax | 79 | 53 | 56 | 60 | 63 | 67 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 55 | 110 | 164 | 216 | 267 |
| Working capital | 80 | 85 | 90 | 94 | 100 | 105 |
| Net block and other assets | 919 | 911 | 907 | 906 | 909 | 918 |
| Debt | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
| Equity | 867 | 918 | 973 | 1,031 | 1,092 | 1,157 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 83 | 88 | 93 | 98 | 104 | |
| Investing (capex) | (26) | (31) | (37) | (44) | (51) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | 55 | 55 | 54 | 53 | 51 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 57 | 56 | 56 | 55 | 53 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 15.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹311 | 33.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.