Models
NARAYANA HRUDAYALAYA LTD.NHHealthcare Services
₹1,685per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,685implied FY26 P/E 41.9× · EV/EBITDA 24.6×
Against CMP ₹1,869.90−9.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies32.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,217₹2,622
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,589₹2,093
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6,072 |
| PV of terminal value | 32,462 |
| Enterprise value | 38,534 |
| less net debt | (4,096) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 34,438 |
| ÷ 20.44 crore shares | ₹1,685 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,751 | 1,909 | 2,099 | 2,332 | 2,622 |
| 10.50% | 1,586 | 1,718 | 1,873 | 2,060 | 2,288 |
| 11.00% | 1,445 | 1,556 | 1,685 | 1,838 | 2,021 |
| 11.50% | 1,323 | 1,418 | 1,526 | 1,653 | 1,803 |
| 12.00% | 1,217 | 1,298 | 1,391 | 1,497 | 1,622 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,869.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,128 · 1,673 · 2,403 |
| Draws below the CMP | 65% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.44 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,525 | 5,018 | 5,483 | 7,896 | 10,265 | 13,344 | 17,348 | 22,552 | 29,317 |
| growth % | 22.2 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 44.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 966 | 1,152 | 1,268 | 1,566 | 2,032 | 2,642 | 3,435 | 4,465 | 5,805 |
| margin % | 21.3 | 23.0 | 23.1 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 19.8 |
| less depreciation | (210) | (242) | (278) | (448) | (585) | (761) | (989) | (1,285) | (1,671) |
| EBIT | 756 | 910 | 990 | 1,118 | 1,447 | 1,882 | 2,446 | 3,180 | 4,134 |
| less tax on EBIT | (182) | (236) | (307) | (399) | (518) | (674) | |||
| NOPAT | 936 | 1,211 | 1,575 | 2,047 | 2,662 | 3,460 | |||
| add depreciation | 210 | 242 | 278 | 448 | 585 | 761 | 989 | 1,285 | 1,671 |
| less capex | (522) | (971) | (1,074) | (875) | (1,139) | (1,339) | (1,556) | (1,783) | (2,005) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 563 | 96 | (84) | — | 657 | 996 | 1,480 | 2,164 | 3,126 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 624 | 852 | 1,140 | 1,502 | 1,954 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,866, dividends at 11.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,118 | 1,447 | 1,882 | 2,446 | 3,180 | 4,134 |
| Interest at 6.9% on debt | (336) | (336) | (336) | (336) | (336) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,112 | 1,546 | 2,110 | 2,844 | 3,798 | |
| Profit after tax | 806 | 930 | 1,294 | 1,766 | 2,380 | 3,179 |
| Dividends | (91) | (105) | (146) | (200) | (269) | (359) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 770 | 1,041 | 1,610 | 2,610 | 4,224 | 6,709 |
| Working capital | (223) | (223) | (223) | (223) | (223) | (223) |
| Net block and other assets | 11,927 | 12,481 | 13,060 | 13,627 | 14,124 | 14,459 |
| Debt | 4,866 | 4,866 | 4,866 | 4,866 | 4,866 | 4,866 |
| Equity | 4,540 | 5,365 | 6,512 | 8,079 | 10,191 | 13,010 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,515 | 2,054 | 2,755 | 3,666 | 4,850 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,139) | (1,339) | (1,556) | (1,783) | (2,005) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (105) | (146) | (200) | (269) | (359) | |
| Net change in cash | 271 | 569 | 999 | 1,614 | 2,485 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 376 | 715 | 1,199 | 1,883 | 2,845 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 19.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,685 | (9.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.