Models
NARMADA GELATINES LTD.BSE 526739Chemicals & Petrochemicals
₹958per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹958implied FY26 P/E 18.4× · EV/EBITDA 13.1×
Against CMP ₹463.10+106.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(16.2)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹728₹1,417
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹327₹545
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 117 |
| PV of terminal value | 471 |
| Enterprise value | 587 |
| less net debt | (8) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 579 |
| ÷ 0.61 crore shares | ₹958 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 991 | 1,068 | 1,161 | 1,275 | 1,417 |
| 10.50% | 910 | 974 | 1,050 | 1,141 | 1,253 |
| 11.00% | 840 | 894 | 958 | 1,032 | 1,122 |
| 11.50% | 780 | 826 | 879 | 942 | 1,015 |
| 12.00% | 728 | 767 | 813 | 865 | 926 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹463.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 769 · 947 · 1,167 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 189 | 215 | 246 | 280 | 319 | 364 | 415 |
| growth % | — | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| EBITDA | 25 | 45 | 51 | 58 | 66 | 76 | 86 |
| margin % | 13.4 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) |
| EBIT | 23 | 42 | 48 | 55 | 62 | 71 | 81 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (19) | |
| NOPAT | 32 | 37 | 42 | 48 | 54 | 62 | |
| add depreciation | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| less capex | (15) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (8) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (15) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 2 | — | 20 | 24 | 30 | 37 | 45 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 19 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 28 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 8, dividends at 19.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 42 | 48 | 55 | 62 | 71 | 81 |
| Interest at 9.9% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 47 | 54 | 61 | 70 | 80 | |
| Profit after tax | 31 | 36 | 41 | 47 | 54 | 61 |
| Dividends | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (12) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 12 | 28 | 49 | 75 | 108 |
| Working capital | 65 | 75 | 85 | 97 | 111 | 126 |
| Net block and other assets | 113 | 121 | 128 | 134 | 137 | 138 |
| Debt | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Equity | 145 | 174 | 208 | 246 | 289 | 338 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 30 | 34 | 39 | 45 | 51 | |
| Investing (capex) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (8) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (12) | |
| Net change in cash | 12 | 16 | 21 | 26 | 33 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 19 | 24 | 30 | 36 | 45 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14% | 20.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹958 | 106.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.