Models
NATCO PHARMA LTD.NATCOPHARMPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹697per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹697implied FY26 P/E 10.9× · EV/EBITDA 9.0×
Against CMP ₹816.50−14.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(0.2)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹542₹1,005
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹789₹1,227
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,656 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,324 |
| Enterprise value | 12,981 |
| less net debt | (508) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 12,473 |
| ÷ 17.90 crore shares | ₹697 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 720 | 772 | 834 | 910 | 1,005 |
| 10.50% | 665 | 708 | 759 | 820 | 895 |
| 11.00% | 618 | 654 | 697 | 747 | 807 |
| 11.50% | 577 | 608 | 644 | 686 | 735 |
| 12.00% | 542 | 568 | 599 | 634 | 675 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹816.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 588 · 698 · 829 |
| Draws below the CMP | 88% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,707 | 3,999 | 4,430 | 4,078 | 3,874 | 3,681 | 3,497 | 3,322 | 3,156 |
| growth % | 39.2 | 47.7 | 10.8 | (7.9) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 936 | 1,751 | 2,196 | 1,437 | 1,364 | 1,296 | 1,231 | 1,169 | 1,111 |
| margin % | 34.6 | 43.8 | 49.6 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 35.2 |
| less depreciation | (164) | (187) | (235) | (207) | (198) | (188) | (178) | (169) | (161) |
| EBIT | 772 | 1,565 | 1,961 | 1,230 | 1,166 | 1,108 | 1,052 | 1,000 | 950 |
| less tax on EBIT | (98) | (93) | (89) | (84) | (80) | (76) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,132 | 1,073 | 1,019 | 968 | 920 | 874 | |||
| add depreciation | 164 | 187 | 235 | 207 | 198 | 188 | 178 | 169 | 161 |
| less capex | (146) | (339) | (401) | (388) | (368) | (319) | (273) | (231) | (193) |
| less working-capital build | — | 69 | 65 | 62 | 59 | 56 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 703 | 872 | 1,296 | — | 971 | 954 | 936 | 917 | 898 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 922 | 816 | 721 | 636 | 561 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 706, dividends at 6.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,230 | 1,166 | 1,108 | 1,052 | 1,000 | 950 |
| Interest at 7.5% on debt | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,113 | 1,055 | 1,000 | 947 | 897 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,419 | 1,024 | 971 | 920 | 871 | 825 |
| Dividends | (90) | (66) | (62) | (59) | (56) | (53) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 199 | 1,056 | 1,899 | 2,727 | 3,540 | 4,336 |
| Working capital | 1,380 | 1,311 | 1,246 | 1,183 | 1,124 | 1,068 |
| Net block and other assets | 9,495 | 9,665 | 9,796 | 9,891 | 9,953 | 9,985 |
| Debt | 706 | 706 | 706 | 706 | 706 | 706 |
| Equity | 9,221 | 10,180 | 11,088 | 11,949 | 12,764 | 13,537 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,291 | 1,224 | 1,160 | 1,100 | 1,042 | |
| Investing (capex) | (368) | (319) | (273) | (231) | (193) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (66) | (62) | (59) | (56) | (53) | |
| Net change in cash | 857 | 843 | 828 | 813 | 796 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 923 | 905 | 887 | 868 | 849 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 35.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹697 | (14.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.