Models
NATIONAL ALUMINIUM CO LTDNATIONALUMNon - Ferrous Metals
₹517per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹517implied FY26 P/E 14.0× · EV/EBITDA 11.9×
Against CMP ₹361.00+43.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(2.1)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹398₹753
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹199₹445
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 21,294 |
| PV of terminal value | 73,418 |
| Enterprise value | 94,712 |
| less net debt | 153 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 94,865 |
| ÷ 183.66 crore shares | ₹517 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 534 | 574 | 621 | 680 | 753 |
| 10.50% | 492 | 525 | 564 | 611 | 668 |
| 11.00% | 456 | 484 | 517 | 555 | 601 |
| 11.50% | 425 | 449 | 476 | 508 | 546 |
| 12.00% | 398 | 418 | 442 | 469 | 500 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹361.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 430 · 514 · 618 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14,255 | 13,149 | 16,788 | 17,843 | 19,003 | 20,238 | 21,554 | 22,954 | 24,447 |
| growth % | 0.5 | (7.8) | 27.7 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| EBITDA | 2,448 | 3,300 | 7,565 | 7,947 | 8,456 | 9,006 | 9,591 | 10,215 | 10,879 |
| margin % | 17.2 | 25.1 | 45.1 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 |
| less depreciation | (716) | (750) | (728) | (745) | (798) | (850) | (905) | (964) | (1,027) |
| EBIT | 1,732 | 2,550 | 6,837 | 7,201 | 7,658 | 8,156 | 8,686 | 9,251 | 9,852 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,808) | (1,922) | (2,047) | (2,180) | (2,322) | (2,473) | |||
| NOPAT | 5,394 | 5,736 | 6,109 | 6,506 | 6,929 | 7,379 | |||
| add depreciation | 716 | 750 | 728 | 745 | 798 | 850 | 905 | 964 | 1,027 |
| less capex | (1,305) | (1,561) | (1,176) | (2,035) | (2,166) | (1,985) | (1,772) | (1,522) | (1,232) |
| less working-capital build | — | (81) | (86) | (92) | (98) | (104) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (397) | 1,159 | 4,631 | — | 4,287 | 4,887 | 5,547 | 6,273 | 7,069 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 4,069 | 4,179 | 4,273 | 4,353 | 4,420 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 34.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 7,201 | 7,658 | 8,156 | 8,686 | 9,251 | 9,852 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 7,658 | 8,156 | 8,686 | 9,251 | 9,852 | |
| Profit after tax | 5,797 | 5,736 | 6,109 | 6,506 | 6,929 | 7,379 |
| Dividends | (2,020) | (2,002) | (2,132) | (2,271) | (2,418) | (2,575) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 153 | 2,438 | 5,193 | 8,470 | 12,325 | 16,819 |
| Working capital | 1,251 | 1,333 | 1,419 | 1,511 | 1,609 | 1,714 |
| Net block and other assets | 25,139 | 26,508 | 27,643 | 28,510 | 29,067 | 29,273 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 21,604 | 25,338 | 29,315 | 33,550 | 38,061 | 42,864 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 6,453 | 6,872 | 7,319 | 7,795 | 8,301 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,166) | (1,985) | (1,772) | (1,522) | (1,232) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2,002) | (2,132) | (2,271) | (2,418) | (2,575) | |
| Net change in cash | 2,285 | 2,755 | 3,277 | 3,855 | 4,494 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 4,287 | 4,887 | 5,547 | 6,273 | 7,069 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6.5% | 44.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹517 | 43.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.