Models
National Peroxide LimitedBSE 544205Chemicals & Petrochemicals
₹180per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹180implied FY26 P/E 6.2× · EV/EBITDA 2.9×
Against CMP ₹630.00−71.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3136%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹163₹214
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹350₹708
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 57 |
| PV of terminal value | 32 |
| Enterprise value | 89 |
| less net debt | 15 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 104 |
| ÷ 0.57 crore shares | ₹180 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 184 | 189 | 196 | 204 | 214 |
| 10.50% | 177 | 182 | 187 | 194 | 202 |
| 11.00% | 172 | 176 | 180 | 185 | 192 |
| 11.50% | 167 | 170 | 174 | 178 | 184 |
| 12.00% | 163 | 166 | 169 | 172 | 177 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹630.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 117 · 179 · 241 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.99 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.13 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 333 | 287 | 290 | 293 | 296 | 298 | 301 | 304 |
| growth % | — | (13.8) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | 38 | 15 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| margin % | 11.3 | 5.3 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| less depreciation | (19) | (20) | (21) | (21) | (21) | (21) | (22) | (22) |
| EBIT | 18 | (5) | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | ||
| NOPAT | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||
| add depreciation | 19 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 |
| less capex | (15) | (5) | (4) | (4) | (10) | (15) | (21) | (26) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 22 | 14 | — | 24 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 3 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 23 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 2 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | |
| Profit after tax | 11 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 19 | 42 | 61 | 74 | 83 | 85 |
| Working capital | 47 | 48 | 48 | 49 | 49 | 50 |
| Net block and other assets | 391 | 374 | 363 | 356 | 355 | 360 |
| Debt | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Equity | 362 | 369 | 377 | 384 | 392 | 400 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 28 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 29 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (10) | (15) | (21) | (26) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 3 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 24 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 3 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 10.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹180 | (71.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.