Models
National Securities DepositoryBSE 544467Capital Markets
₹283per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹283implied FY26 P/E 14.6× · EV/EBITDA 12.5×
Against CMP ₹803.00−64.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies36.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹220₹410
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹788₹1,352
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,165 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,281 |
| Enterprise value | 5,446 |
| less net debt | 222 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,668 |
| ÷ 20.00 crore shares | ₹283 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 293 | 314 | 339 | 371 | 410 |
| 10.50% | 270 | 288 | 309 | 334 | 365 |
| 11.00% | 251 | 266 | 283 | 304 | 329 |
| 11.50% | 235 | 247 | 262 | 279 | 299 |
| 12.00% | 220 | 231 | 243 | 258 | 275 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹803.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 235 · 282 · 340 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.41 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,530 | 1,652 | 1,785 | 1,927 | 2,081 | 2,248 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 434 | 469 | 507 | 547 | 591 | 638 |
| margin % | 28.4 | 28.4 | 28.4 | 28.4 | 28.4 | 28.4 |
| less depreciation | (48) | (51) | (55) | (60) | (65) | (70) |
| EBIT | 386 | 418 | 451 | 488 | 527 | 569 |
| less tax on EBIT | (95) | (103) | (111) | (120) | (130) | (140) |
| NOPAT | 291 | 315 | 340 | 368 | 397 | 429 |
| add depreciation | 48 | 51 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 |
| less capex | (135) | (147) | (136) | (122) | (104) | (84) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 217 | 258 | 304 | 355 | 412 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 206 | 221 | 234 | 246 | 258 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 10.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 386 | 418 | 451 | 488 | 527 | 569 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 418 | 451 | 488 | 527 | 569 | |
| Profit after tax | 380 | 315 | 340 | 368 | 397 | 429 |
| Dividends | (40) | (33) | (36) | (39) | (42) | (45) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 222 | 406 | 629 | 893 | 1,206 | 1,574 |
| Working capital | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 36 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,573 | 3,669 | 3,749 | 3,811 | 3,851 | 3,865 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,380 | 2,662 | 2,966 | 3,295 | 3,651 | 4,035 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 364 | 394 | 425 | 459 | 496 | |
| Investing (capex) | (147) | (136) | (122) | (104) | (84) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (33) | (36) | (39) | (42) | (45) | |
| Net change in cash | 184 | 222 | 265 | 313 | 367 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 217 | 258 | 304 | 355 | 412 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 28.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹283 | (64.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.