Models
NAVA LIMITEDNAVAPower
₹398per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹398implied FY26 P/E 14.9× · EV/EBITDA 6.6×
Against CMP ₹552.00−27.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies19.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3198%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹283₹629
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹502₹739
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 269 |
| PV of terminal value | 11,132 |
| Enterprise value | 11,401 |
| less net debt | (122) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 11,279 |
| ÷ 28.34 crore shares | ₹398 |
98% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 414 | 453 | 500 | 557 | 629 |
| 10.50% | 373 | 406 | 444 | 490 | 547 |
| 11.00% | 339 | 366 | 398 | 436 | 481 |
| 11.50% | 309 | 332 | 359 | 391 | 428 |
| 12.00% | 283 | 303 | 326 | 352 | 383 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹552.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 298 · 394 · 509 |
| Draws below the CMP | 96% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.18 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,528 | 3,818 | 3,984 | 4,291 | 4,613 | 4,959 | 5,331 | 5,730 | 6,160 |
| growth % | 5.4 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,568 | 1,835 | 1,835 | 1,717 | 1,845 | 1,983 | 2,132 | 2,292 | 2,464 |
| margin % | 44.4 | 48.1 | 46.1 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| less depreciation | (306) | (319) | (352) | (391) | (420) | (451) | (485) | (521) | (561) |
| EBIT | 1,262 | 1,516 | 1,483 | 1,326 | 1,425 | 1,532 | 1,647 | 1,771 | 1,903 |
| less tax on EBIT | (408) | (439) | (472) | (507) | (545) | (586) | |||
| NOPAT | 918 | 986 | 1,060 | 1,140 | 1,225 | 1,317 | |||
| add depreciation | 306 | 319 | 352 | 391 | 420 | 451 | 485 | 521 | 561 |
| less capex | (100) | (166) | (852) | (1,807) | (1,942) | (1,701) | (1,413) | (1,072) | (673) |
| less working-capital build | — | (100) | (107) | (115) | (124) | (133) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,123 | 3,008 | 1,321 | — | (636) | (297) | 96 | 550 | 1,072 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (603) | (254) | 74 | 382 | 670 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,221, dividends at 62.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,326 | 1,425 | 1,532 | 1,647 | 1,771 | 1,903 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (178) | (178) | (178) | (178) | (178) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,248 | 1,355 | 1,469 | 1,593 | 1,726 | |
| Profit after tax | 787 | 863 | 937 | 1,017 | 1,102 | 1,194 |
| Dividends | (495) | (543) | (590) | (640) | (693) | (751) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2,099 | 797 | (212) | (879) | (1,144) | (947) |
| Working capital | 1,330 | 1,429 | 1,537 | 1,652 | 1,776 | 1,909 |
| Net block and other assets | 10,944 | 12,466 | 13,716 | 14,644 | 15,195 | 15,307 |
| Debt | 2,221 | 2,221 | 2,221 | 2,221 | 2,221 | 2,221 |
| Equity | 10,764 | 11,084 | 11,432 | 11,809 | 12,218 | 12,661 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,183 | 1,281 | 1,387 | 1,500 | 1,622 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,942) | (1,701) | (1,413) | (1,072) | (673) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (543) | (590) | (640) | (693) | (751) | |
| Net change in cash | (1,302) | (1,009) | (666) | (266) | 198 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (759) | (420) | (26) | 427 | 949 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 40% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹398 | (27.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.