Models
NBCC (INDIA) LIMITEDNBCCConstruction
₹49per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹49implied FY26 P/E 17.9× · EV/EBITDA 14.0×
Against CMP ₹82.90−40.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies23.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹41₹65
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹77₹126
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,348 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,415 |
| Enterprise value | 9,764 |
| less net debt | 3,487 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 13,251 |
| ÷ 270.00 crore shares | ₹49 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 50 | 53 | 56 | 60 | 65 |
| 10.50% | 47 | 50 | 52 | 56 | 60 |
| 11.00% | 45 | 47 | 49 | 52 | 55 |
| 11.50% | 43 | 44 | 46 | 48 | 51 |
| 12.00% | 41 | 42 | 44 | 46 | 48 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹82.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 43 · 49 · 56 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,754 | 10,433 | 12,039 | 12,889 | 13,791 | 14,756 | 15,789 | 16,894 | 18,077 |
| growth % | 13.8 | 19.2 | 15.4 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 171 | 330 | 528 | 697 | 745 | 797 | 853 | 912 | 976 |
| margin % | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (5) | (7) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) | (18) |
| EBIT | 165 | 324 | 521 | 684 | 731 | 782 | 837 | 895 | 958 |
| less tax on EBIT | (172) | (183) | (196) | (210) | (225) | (240) | |||
| NOPAT | 512 | 547 | 586 | 627 | 671 | 718 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| less capex | (11) | (16) | (320) | (37) | (41) | (38) | (33) | (28) | (22) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (452) | 57 | 337 | — | 520 | 563 | 609 | 660 | 714 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 493 | 481 | 469 | 458 | 446 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 27.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 684 | 731 | 782 | 837 | 895 | 958 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 731 | 782 | 837 | 895 | 958 | |
| Profit after tax | 720 | 547 | 586 | 627 | 671 | 718 |
| Dividends | (200) | (152) | (163) | (174) | (186) | (199) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3,487 | 3,855 | 4,255 | 4,690 | 5,164 | 5,678 |
| Working capital | (71) | (71) | (71) | (71) | (71) | (71) |
| Net block and other assets | 12,857 | 12,885 | 12,907 | 12,925 | 12,936 | 12,939 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 3,215 | 3,611 | 4,034 | 4,486 | 4,970 | 5,489 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 561 | 601 | 643 | 688 | 736 | |
| Investing (capex) | (41) | (38) | (33) | (28) | (22) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (152) | (163) | (174) | (186) | (199) | |
| Net change in cash | 368 | 400 | 435 | 473 | 514 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 520 | 563 | 609 | 660 | 714 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 5.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹49 | (40.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.